The MLB winter meetings are underway in Orlando, Florida, with the baseball industry gathering for an action-packed week of rumors, signings and trades.
We’ve got it all covered for you, from our predictions going into the meetings to the latest updates and analysis as the moves go down.
Which big free agents will pick a team? Who will be mentioned in blockbuster trade discussion? And what rumors will rule the week? Check out our predictions and refresh often for the latest intel and reaction as the week unfolds.
Key links: Olney, Passan: Latest intel | Every team’s plan | FA tracker | Grades
Winter meetings predictions
Who will be the biggest name to sign (or get traded) in Orlando?
Jorge Castillo: I root for action at the winter meetings, so let’s pick the biggest name on the free agent market: Kyle Tucker. There aren’t many suitors that, whether it’s for fit or financial reasons, are in the mix, but there’s still interest for an ultra-talented player who can alter the championship landscape. And it starts with Toronto.
The Blue Jays whiffed on the brightest stars of the past two free agent classes — Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto — and Rogers Communications still has money to spend after investing $500 million in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in April and another $210 million recently in free agent starter Dylan Cease. Tucker visited the Blue Jays’ facility in Florida last week. Pairing the left-handed-hitting outfielder with the right-handed-hitting Guerrero would give Toronto a scary tandem for years.
Byron Buxton on our trade candidates ranking took me aback, mostly because Buxton has been insistent that he will remain a Twin. It’s surprising that he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause, but Buxton is 31, and the Twins don’t seem all-in on winning. Several leading contenders could use a bump in center field — the Houston Astros and New York Mets jump out as clear fits — and if the Twins are heading down this road, dealing Buxton soon would start those dominoes to fall.
Alden Gonzalez: A game of chicken might be brewing at the moment. On one side it’s Cody Bellinger, represented by the Boras Corporation. On the other it’s Tucker, whose free agency is overseen by Excel Sports Management. They’re arguably the two biggest names available, both of them versatile, multi-dimensional, dynamic outfielders, their markets naturally intertwined. And I think Bellinger goes first.
His price point — ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicts a six-year, $165 million contract — is more reasonable, and his list of suitors is seemingly more robust because of it. The New York Yankees want him back. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets are all a fit, to varying degrees. Given Bellinger’s ability to also play first base, other teams will undoubtedly emerge. Jumping on Bellinger before Tucker comes off the board and further inflates his market would be smart. And one team will do so this week.
Jesse Rogers: Ranger Suarez. Scott Boras clients usually take longer to come off the board, but not all of them can wait until the new year. Suarez isn’t staring at a megadeal, so checking him off the free agent list by late next week seems more than plausible.
The chatter surrounding the left-hander’s free agency from potential suitors such as the Astros, Mets, Orioles and others is picking up. He’s in line for at least a solid four-year deal — and if a team offers five or even six, it’ll likely land him.
What is one move fans might not expect you to predict will go down this week?
Castillo: Pete Alonso will probably wait until Kyle Schwarber decides on his destination, but I predict Alonso will sign with the Red Sox. Craig Breslow, Boston’s chief baseball officer, has been clear about his desire to acquire a right-handed slugger for the middle of the order. Not many players are better qualified for that role than the right-handed-hitting Alonso, whose 264 home runs since his debut in 2019 are the third most in baseball behind Aaron Judge and Schwarber.
Alonso is coming off a rebound All-Star season in which he clubbed 38 home runs with 126 RBIs, an NL-leading 41 doubles and an .871 OPS for the Mets. Defensively, Alonso is below average, but he could split time with Triston Casas at first base and designated hitter.
The Mets, on the other hand, are determined to improve their defense and would seemingly be in play for Alonso only if his market collapses for the second straight offseason.
Top 25 trade candidates »
Trades that would rock the offseason »
Doolittle: Maybe it’s because I am overly susceptible to rumors that tickle my penchant for anti-Wolfean narratives, but I’ll say Schwarber will sign with his hometown Cincinnati Reds. It’s such a perfect fit, and not just because of Schwarber’s ties to Cincinnati. The Reds have a real chance to contend in the NL Central with the right upgrade on offense. And what an upgrade — Schwarber’s swing is perfect for Great American Ballpark, which has featured more homers from visiting lefty hitters over the past five years than any other venue (including 96 more than Citizens Bank Park). Even at 32, give Schwarber five healthy seasons at that park and he’ll reach 500 career bombs.
Gonzalez: This year’s market seems especially ripe for trades, and I think we’re going to see some big-name starting pitchers dealt during the winter meetings. Who, exactly, is anybody’s guess at this point, but there are a bevy of names to choose from, whether it’s two of the Miami Marlins’ frontline guys (Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera), three steady veterans (Freddy Peralta, Luis Castillo and Pablo Lopez), two budding aces (Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore) or two Cy Young-caliber arms who are unlikely to move but fascinating nonetheless (Tarik Skubal and Hunter Greene). All eyes will be on the big free agents this week, but the trade market will dominate. And the starting pitchers will be featured in it.
Rogers: How about a bold one: Nick Castellanos gets traded. Perhaps it won’t land as the biggest of surprises, considering how things went down in Philadelphia last year, but a deal would further show that the Phillies are turning things over a bit as they continue to chase a ring.
Castellanos could be the perfect fit for Pittsburgh, which is desperate for hitting. In a recent interview on MLB Network, Castellanos discussed the idea of playing first base. That opens the door to even more possibilities outside of Philadelphia.
What is the one rumor that will dominate the week?
Castillo: Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte, if moved, would be the best position player to move this offseason — Tucker and Schwarber included. So the fact that he is available will undoubtedly generate rumors all week.
First, Marte produces. His 15.3 WAR over the past three seasons is 13th in the majors. He has made the NL All-Star team each of the past two seasons. He finished third in the NL MVP race in 2024. He owns a .289/.363/.510 slash line since 2019. Second, his economical contract — he has five years and $91 million plus a sixth-year player option at $11.5 million remaining — only adds to the allure and makes him palpable for several clubs. Marte is 32 and drew anonymous criticism from teammates for his behavior last season, but a player of his caliber will draw substantial interest.
Doolittle: Something about Tucker? It doesn’t feel like there have been many concrete reports regarding Tucker’s possible destination, but he’s the top free agent, so the rumor mill is more likely to focus on his wanderings than anyone else until he signs. News about him will pick up in Orlando.
Gonzalez: There is no bigger name on the trade market than Skubal. On one end, he is beloved in Detroit, where he has established himself as the type of cornerstone who should never pitch anywhere else. On the other is the cold reality — that he is a Boras client who would command the types of sums in the open market that the Tigers are either unwilling or unable to pay him. And though the Tigers intend to contend in 2026 and would undoubtedly have a better chance of doing so with Skubal fronting their rotation, it would be foolish not to at least explore a trade and attempt to get major talent back in return. It’s the responsible thing to do — and yet Tigers fans have every right to be enraged about this even being a possibility.
Rogers: Where Kyle Schwarber will play in 2026 and beyond. His next contract should be in the $150 million range, though if a new team steps up and is willing to pay big time for not only his power but his leadership, then all bets are off. But as intriguing as a smaller market might be, the Phillies need him as much as anyone during their current window to win. His return there isn’t a guarantee, but it still makes the most sense.
