Welcome back to the world’s most accurate power rankings, where this week we will place the eight NBA Cup quarterfinalists into so perfect an order they barely even have to play the tournament to sort it out.
That is right: We ranked the eight teams remaining in the NBA Cup field from from least likely to most likely to win the single-elimination extravaganza. Bet accordingly, or don’t. I can’t guarantee winnings.
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What I can guarantee is that these are the best damn NBA Cup quarterfinal power rankings around …
How they got here: PHX 118, UTA 96 • PHX 114, MIN 113 • PHX 112, SAC 100 • OKC 123, PHX 119
NBA Cup quarterfinal: at Oklahoma City (-15.5) on Wednesday (7:30 p.m., Prime Video)
The Suns are playing better than anyone anticipated, hovering above .500, holding firm to a play-in tournament berth in the crowded Western Conference through the season’s first quarter. They are 3-4 in their last seven games, playing more like the team we imagined them to be, with a -4.7 net rating.
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Devin Booker missed their last two games, including a blowout loss to the Houston Rockets, with a strained groin. While he is scheduled for reevaluation before Wednesday’s Cup quarterfinal game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Booker is unlikely to return in time to help punch Phoenix’s ticket to Vegas.
The Thunder, then, will host the wavering Booker-less Suns, and since every team but the Portland Trail Blazers has befallen the same fate against the defending champions, I’m not in love with the Suns’ odds.
The Suns will likely be without Devin Booker in the NBA Cup quarterfinals. (Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images)
(IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / Reuters)
How they got here: TOR 112, CLE 101 • TOR 109, ATL 97 • TOR 140, WAS 110 • TOR 97, IND 95
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NBA Cup quarterfinal: vs. New York (-4.5) on Tuesday (8:30 p.m., Prime Video)
As Raptors head coach Darko Rajaković said, suggesting his team needs a kick in the you-know-what at the campaign’s quarter-point, «I’m demanding more urgency from the whole team. I’m demanding more scrappiness. When we do that … we’re a completely different team, and we can compete with anybody.»
[Devine: Breaking down the East quarterfinal matchups]
That has been, for the most part, true, as Toronto has held its own in the Eastern Conference, seizing a home playoff seed through the season’s first 25 games. Like the Suns, the Raptors have struggled of late, losing five of their last six games, playing more like the team we envisioned, and like Phoenix, Toronto has been missing a key contributor to its rotation, as RJ Barrett (knee) has missed his last eight games.
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Statistically, the Raptors have been about as good with Barrett on the court (+2.7 points per 100 possessions) as they have been without him (+2.5), which jibes with what we have seen from them — and what they have said — over their recent rough patch. I think this is a team that needs everyone, and, as Rajaković said, needs everyone pulling in the same direction, away from the lottery, to stay competitive.
How they got here: MIA 126, CHA 108 • NYK 140, MIA 132 • MIA 143, CHI 107 • MIA 106, MIL 103
NBA Cup quarterfinal: at Orlando (+2.5) on Tuesday (6 p.m., Prime Video)
The Heat play faster than everyone else, mostly without screens, driving and cutting and rotating and spacing, and this brand of ball has led to significant improvements on the offensive end, where they rank 13th after falling into the bottom 10 last season. The arrival of Norman Powell has helped in that regard.
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«You have to learn how to be in the best shape of your life, really,» Jaime Jaquez told The Athletic of the requirements necessary to play inside of their new system. “You just have to be really well-conditioned.»
Apparently they are. In addition to their freshly learned offensive responsibilities, the Heat are playing the same stout defense they did last season, ranking in the top 10 on that end. The resulting net rating (+3.5) has been good for a 14-10 record and the last guaranteed playoff berth in the Eastern Conference.
There is some question about how well their style travels. They are 4-7 on the road, including a pair of losses in Orlando, where they will travel for Tuesday’s Cup quarterfinal. It might be easier for the Heat to run teams out of the gym when they are in Miami, where South Beach serves as a visitor’s distraction.
How they got here: ORL 123, BOS 110 • ORL 105, BOS 98 • ORL 144, PHI 103 • ORL 112, DET 109
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NBA Cup quarterfinal: vs. Miami (-2.5) on Tuesday (6 p.m., Prime Video)
The Magic were humming in the absence of an injured Paolo Banchero, got the former No. 1 overall pick back, and then lost Franz Wagner to what appeared to be a severe injury. It is frustrating beyond words.
«You never want to see anybody go down, but that hurt my heart watching him hit the floor,» said Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley. «I’m just praying everything is going to be OK with him. You just don’t like to see that happen to anyone, especially [Franz], who tries to do everything the right way at all times.»
The official diagnosis for Wagner: A high left ankle sprain. It looked worse. Scratch him from the NBA Cup moving forward. «His return will depend on how he responds to treatment,» the Magic’s statement said.
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Orlando is +1.3 points per 100 meaningful possessions this season when Wagner is on the floor without Banchero, and they are -6.3 points per 100 non-garbage possessions when the reverse is true, according to Cleaning the Glass. That does not bode well for their chances against Miami, but something tells me Banchero learned from watching Wagner in his absence, and the Magic have enough to get the job done.
How they got here: SAS 121, HOU 110 • GSW 109, SAS 108 • SAS 115, POR 102 • SAS 139, DEN 136
NBA Cup quarterfinal: at Los Angeles (-4.5) on Wednesday (10:05 p.m., Prime Video)
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Really, the Spurs have yet to show us what they are fully capable of, vacillating between the absences of De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama, plus a few other injuries. Still, they are 16-7, squarely in the hunt for a guaranteed playoff seed, and owners of a healthy +3.8 net rating, both good for fifth in the West.
«We’re having a good year right now, and we still haven’t had our whole team,» said Stephon Castle, a Rookie of the Year. «It’s a blessing and a curse at the same time. Guys are getting more comfortable and more shots when guys are out. Obviously we want the whole team together to get to our full potential.»
That may be possible on Wednesday, when Wembanyama is scheduled to travel to Los Angeles a few weeks removed from straining his left calf. His availability for the Cup quarterfinal remains uncertain.
Nobody but the Thunder has a better defense than when Wembanyama is on the floor for San Antonio, and that defensive rating falls to a bottom-10 figure in the league when he is off the court. The offense has hummed along at a top-10 pace in Wembanyama’s absence, but they will need their full complement of defenders — with a healthy 7-foot-5 alien in the middle — in order to send these Lakers packing.
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How they got here: LAL 117, MEM 112 • LAL 118, NOP 104 • LAL 135, LAC 118 • LAL 129, DAL 119
NBA Cup quarterfinal: vs. San Antonio (+4.5) on Wednesday (10:05 p.m., Prime Video)
Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves and LeBron James form the most dangerous offensive trio in the game, especially since James looked more like himself with a 29-point performance on Sunday.
“Just at 40 years old, I mean, it just takes a while for my body to kind of get back into a rhythm,” James said upon returning to his All-Star form. “And so it felt good tonight to kind of feel like myself a little bit, being able to run and jump and cut and catch my second win a lot faster tonight. Hopefully that stays.”
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Hopefully that stays. A forever mantra in L.A., where James will turn 41 years old later this month. Because, as long as he is on the floor, James provides the Lakers with a third offensive option who could command a double team, and there are not enough defenders to put two on Dončić, Reaves and James.
The defense remains a concern, though, as the Lakers rate 21st on that end (116.2 points allowed per 100 possessions). It is hard to imagine them seriously contending for a title with their existing personnel, but at the same time it is hard to imagine anyone slowing each of the Lakers’ three dynamos in a must-win game, because, and this may be oversimplifying it, James and Dončić know how to pull these games out.
How they got here: CHI 135, NYK 125 • NYK 140, MIA 132 • NYK 129, CHA 101 • NYK 118, MIL 109
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NBA Cup quarterfinal: at Toronto (+4.5) on Tuesday (8:35 p.m., Prime Video)
The Knicks welcomed OG Anunoby back into the fold from a left hamstring strain for a pair of victories against the Magic and Utah Jazz. When he is on the floor with Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks are outscoring opponents by 35.6 points per 100 possessions, operating like the league’s best outfit on both ends of the floor, and that is a welcome sign for New York.
Of course, when Towns and center Mitchell Robinson share the floor, the Knicks are also outscoring opponents by 6.1 points per 100 possessions, another healthy number. To have a pair of starting-caliber lineups to choose between is far from the worst problem for Knicks head coach Mike Brown to have.
Either way, the Knicks have lived up to the hype as favorites to emerge from the Eastern Conference. They, too, have defensive concerns, ranking in the middle of the pack on that end, given the limitations of Brunson and Towns, though they have been one of the league’s better defenses at home this season.
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«We’ve done a great job of protecting our home court,» said Josh Hart, whose Knicks are 13-1 at Madison Square Garden. «This should be the hardest place to play in the NBA, and we want teams to know that.»
How they got here: OKC 132, SAC 101 • OKC 144, UTA 112 • OKC 113, MIN 105 • OKC 123, PHX 119
NBA Cup quarterfinal: vs. Phoenix (+15.5) on Wednesday (7:35 p.m., Prime Video)
There is a lot of lip service in the NBA, and this certainly sounds like lip service …
«We have a team that over time has formed a belief that you’re only as good as you are tonight,» said Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault. «Nothing we have done previous to this has helped us tonight.»
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… but it’s not.
Oklahoma City actually believes its mantra. The Thunder wake up each morning in service of performing their jobs, which is to win basketball games, and no previous victory will assure them of the next. So they must give forth a full effort. And their full effort is better than anybody else’s almost every single night.
«Our team has been way more of the same than different,» Daigneault said of his defending champions. «The only difference might be a little more confidence — internal confidence and assuredness. I think the chemistry and continuity help with that. But it feels the same. The same things we’ve emphasized.»
There is little else to say about this team, other than that they are apace to be the greatest of all time.
