NBA trade deadline intel: League insiders on Bucks…

The NBA season is past its halfway point, with the trade deadline and All-Star Weekend fast approaching, but the Eastern Conference remains wide open and full of questions.

But the situation in the East hasn’t allowed the Milwaukee Bucks to remain in contention with Giannis Antetokounmpo. That’s why, as ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Wednesday, the two sides could be heading toward a divorce after more than 12 seasons together. But above the 12th-place Bucks, several East teams will enter April with legit Finals aspirations.

After speaking with league insiders throughout this week, our latest trip around the NBA features an East reset. What lies ahead for the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and other contenders? What are the cases for and against each as the true conference favorite? And how could those franchises — and Milwaukee — attack the Feb. 5 trade deadline?

«There are several teams who can make a case to themselves that they can win,» one longtime advance scout who focuses on the East said. «But none of the cases are ironclad.»

First, what’s next for Giannis and the Bucks?

While the race for top contender in the East is still up for debate, the biggest storyline in the conference — and the NBA — is not.

In conversations with sources around the league over the past 48 hours, the widespread expectation is that the Giannis saga will drag out until at least Thursday. Then, Bucks general manager Jon Horst and his staff will have to decide whether to make a move now or wait until the offseason.

Three sources said they expect the trade drama in Milwaukee to stretch into the summer.

«I’m just not sure why it wouldn’t make sense to wait,» an East scout said. «They can see where the draft [lottery] is, and survey their options then.»

But Milwaukee is taking calls, surveying the trade value for its superstar forward in a way the franchise, as one source said, has never before.

Antetokounmpo’s calf injury could push Milwaukee to wait until the offseason. He is out at least a month because of a calf strain, removing one argument for a deadline deal: the potential for Antetokounmpo to play the Bucks out of prime lottery position for their 2026 first-round pick. (That’s the same reason, sources said, that trade talks for the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis have cooled from several weeks ago.)

As a result, the league — from teams already interested, such as the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat and New York Knicks, to others that could potentially join the fray for a top-five player — will continue to see what happens before the deadline.

As for the state of the East outside of Milwaukee, here’s a look at the cases for and against each contender to reach the Finals, starting with the team that has led the conference for months.

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Detroit Pistons

The case for: Detroit is second in the league in defensive rating (No. 1 since Dec. 1) and net rating, behind the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. Thanks to a 15-2 start, Detroit has been the runaway leader atop the conference and currently enjoys a six-game advantage over the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. Cade Cunningham has become a bona fide star and an MVP candidate, the leader of a tough-minded, physical group with a clear identity.

The case against: Championship-level teams typically have two reliable perimeter playmaking options. The past few title teams, for example, featured Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams; Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown; Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic; Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Detroit has Cunningham and no other reliable scoring threats. Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff also has to show that he can get his team past the second round of the playoffs. The Pistons have a young roster that has yet to win a playoff series. Can it go from that to winning three straight series? History would say otherwise. «It’s just hard to say Detroit [will make the Finals] until they prove it,» a Western Conference executive said.

Trade deadline synopsis: The Pistons have continued to convey patience, sources have reiterated, with the belief that Detroit is more likely to be a facilitator at the deadline than pursue a seismic move to expedite the team’s timeline. That outlook is understandable because Detroit’s core hasn’t reached its prime, and big contract decisions loom for Jalen Duren (restricted free agency) and Ausar Thompson (extension talks) this summer. There is, however, time to change that stance and turn the young Pistons into truly prohibitive conference title favorites for the first time in a generation.

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Boston Celtics

The case for: Brown is playing at an All-NBA level, Tatum has yet to rule out a return this season from his Achilles tear and coach Joe Mazzulla has coaxed development out of Boston’s young or unproven players (forwards Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez and centers Neemias Queta and Luka Garza). As a result, the Celtics have the league’s No. 2 offense, the No. 12 defense and the No. 3 net rating behind only Oklahoma City and Detroit. «I don’t think they’re a title threat because the East isn’t good,» a West scout said. «But I think they can win the East, for sure.»

The case against: Despite surpassing many leaguewide expectations, the Celtics are still thin. That’s what happens when Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kornet and Al Horford all leave in one offseason with little in return. Counting on Tatum is no sure thing, and those impactful young players have yet to prove themselves in the postseason.

Trade deadline synopsis: Throughout his tenure as president of basketball operations, Brad Stevens has repeatedly found ways to improve at the trade deadline — even if just in the margins. Sources expect that to continue. Guard Anfernee Simons, who has had impressive moments for the Celtics but is on a $27 million expiring contract, would be the most likely candidate to be moved if Stevens makes a move that requires matching a larger salary. And though sources think Boston would target frontcourt size, huge swings for stars such as Antetokounmpo or Memphis Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. seem unlikely.

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New York Knicks

The case for: Raw talent. The Knicks entered 2025-26 as conference co-favorites, and they have spent chunks of the season looking like it, including a run to the NBA Cup title in December. Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby give New York the versatile and defensive wing core every Finals contender covets, and Jalen Brunson is a maestro with the ball in clutch time. New York has the No. 2 offense, carried by elite 3-point shooting numbers (fourth in makes, third in percentage).

The case against: The biggest culprit is defense, which is 14th in the league but has repeatedly struggled over the past few weeks, ranking 28th in the league during the team’s 2-9 swoon earlier this month. The Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns pick-and-roll combination is a defensive concern. The Knicks’ 116.9 defensive rating when those two share the court is the same as the 24th-ranked Chicago Bulls this season. It doesn’t help that this team is also under as much, and likely more, pressure than any team in the East to win this season, between firing coach Tom Thibodeau after last season’s conference finals breakthrough and owner James Dolan recently saying that New York «has to» make the Finals and «should» win them.

Trade deadline synopsis: The Knicks, as Charania has reported, have been interested in adding Antetokounmpo since the summer. The question is whether they have enough to get him. The best path to a trade like this is draft capital, which New York hardly has available. The Knicks could send several rotation players instead, but that’s not the premium value Milwaukee is chasing in a potential Antetokounmpo deal.

Another solution would require a third team to facilitate. Moving Anunoby could return the young players and/or draft picks that Milwaukee covets. Anunoby has never been named an All-Star, but his acquisition could be similar to what Derrick White — another fantastic two-way player — provided Boston after arriving from San Antonio. Similar to White, Anunoby could be the finishing player for a title contender and would drive plenty of interest if he were made available.

«Dolan said he thinks this is a championship team,» one West GM said. «The front office has to decide whether they still believe that is true.»

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Cleveland Cavaliers

The case for: Donovan Mitchell is having a career season, and though it’s understandable that he wasn’t named an All-Star starter because Cleveland has underachieved in the first half, it’s not fair. Mitchell has filled gaps everywhere, including recently taking over starting point guard duties because Darius Garland is out. The Cavs can also be a strong defensive team in spurts, and their ceiling, which they have reached at times this season, is among the league’s elite.

The case against: They might never be fully healthy. Garland has had problems with both big toes, Evan Mobley has injured his left calf twice, Sam Merrill has sprained his right shooting hand twice and Max Strus recently had his injury timeline extended as he recovers from a Jones fracture. Even when healthy, the Cavs are small at the guard spots, and their defensive interior has struggled in the playoffs the past three years in losses to the Knicks, Celtics and Indiana Pacers. That has contributed to their postseason disappointments, and there isn’t much evidence they have changed that DNA.

Trade deadline synopsis: With just one guaranteed year remaining on Mitchell’s contract, the franchise is headed toward a perilous gut check moment. Mitchell hasn’t hinted at anything but contentment in Cleveland, and he has already signed one extension. Would that change after another first- or second-round exit? Mitchell has never reached a conference finals in his eight-plus seasons. That is why sources around the league are closely monitoring Cleveland over the next week and into the offseason.

«Cleveland is active [in trade talks],» one East executive said. «We’re not sure what they’re trying to set up — and they may not be either — but they’re active.»

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The case for: When Joel Embiid is right, few players are more dominant offensively. The former MVP big man is starting to resemble that form, creating a feeling within the franchise that the 76ers could be a threat in the playoffs. Tyrese Maxey, who was named an All-Star starter, continues to blossom into a superstar. Paul George has settled in as a third or fourth option, and rookie guard VJ Edgecombe is living up to his billing as the No. 3 pick.

The case against: The injury risk is massive in Philly, and predicting the health of Embiid and George, 35, into the spring is a fool’s errand. The 76ers are also small across the rotation despite the 7-foot Embiid manning the middle. George or Kelly Oubre Jr. will often step into a small-ball 4 role, while the talented guard quartet of Maxey, Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain is average height or shorter for their position.

Trade deadline synopsis: Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey is the originator of the «5% rule,» which states that if you have at least that much of a title chance, you go for it. Though Morey has a storied history of big swings — he traded for James Harden with two franchises — the sense from Philadelphia and around the league is that another blockbuster isn’t likely. The 76ers are $7 million into the luxury tax and have paths to get under the threshold. Doing so would likely cost a player such as Oubre or Grimes, a move sources have said the team isn’t pursuing. Creating roster room to convert two-way players Dominick Barlow and Jabari Walker to standard deals could easily be Philly’s only activity between now and Thursday’s deadline.

More East teams with a chance

With so many questions facing the top few East teams, several other franchises would argue they, too, have a chance to make a run. That’s especially true if any of the next three make a major deadline move.

Toronto Raptors

Raptors fans will likely object to their team in this group after what has been a terrific start to the season. Despite a lopsided home loss to the Knicks on Wednesday, Toronto is fourth in the East standings thanks to the league’s No. 6 defense and a terrific all-around campaign from Scottie Barnes and impressive contributions from rookie Collin Murray-Boyles.

The loss to the Knicks, however, highlighted why this team doesn’t rate higher. Toronto, which is No. 21 on offense, is in the bottom 10 in the league in 3-point makes, attempts and percentage. It’s difficult to contend in the modern NBA on such low volume from beyond the arc.

Sources have predicted that Toronto will be aggressive, with heaps of long-term money on the books and all of their future picks available to trade, giving them the ability to shed onerous contracts and also add talent to bolster a playoff run. Though Toronto had been seen as a prominent suitor for Anthony Davis, the star forward’s injury has likely removed that option. It seems certain that Toronto will shave the roughly $1 million necessary to get out of the luxury tax, but the chance for a big swing might not present itself.

«There are only a few teams out there who have full control of their drafts,» one veteran East executive said. «That makes [the Raptors] a buyer if they want. But when you look at their contracts [$165 million to their top five players next year], they’re going to need those picks.»

Miami Heat

Miami remains in its period between the end of the Jimmy Butler III era and the next stage of the franchise. The Heat are 18th in offense despite adopting a new free-flowing attack in the offseason, though it hasn’t helped that former All-Star Tyler Herro has played just 11 games because of injuries. But while coach Erik Spoelstra remains arguably the game’s best tactician who gets the most out of his players, it’s difficult to see another Finals run until a true star is brought in to pair with big man Bam Adebayo.

And that is where Antetokounmpo’s future becomes a factor. As Charania has reported, Miami is a strong suitor for the two-time MVP forward. Adebayo and Antetokounmpo share an agent in Octagon’s Alex Saratsis, and the Heat’s front office, led by Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg, has made more star-level deals than any team over the past 30 years. The biggest challenge this time around is Miami’s limitations of draft assets and available young players.

The Heat have just two tradeable first-round picks, Herro (a Milwaukee native), Kel’el Ware and Jaime Jaquez Jr., but not the premium trade package it could require to land Antetokounmpo. Don’t expect the front office to do much before the deadline. It will either turn its attention to the offseason if Antetokounmpo remains a Buck or prepare for summer 2027, when Miami could have substantial cap space.

Orlando Magic

Orlando was projected as an under-the-radar Finals threat after signing Paolo Banchero to a max extension and acquiring scoring guard Desmond Bane from Memphis for four first-round picks. But Orlando’s offense is still 19th in the league — if that holds, however, the Magic would be inside the top 20 for the first time in 15 years — with a defense that is 15th after finishing in the top three each of the past two seasons.

Sources across the league strongly believe that Orlando, which is about $5 million into the luxury tax, will make a move to get under. Moving on from guard Tyus Jones‘ expiring $7 million deal would solve that, but not the massive money crunch coming next season, when Banchero’s extension kicks in. (The Magic are already projected to be well into the luxury tax in 2026-27 with just 10 players on the roster.) And if Orlando doesn’t move on from Jonathan Isaac‘s non-guaranteed deal, it will be a second apron team.

«Banchero is a physically gifted and highly talented player who doesn’t always make his team better, and it reminds you at times of Carmelo Anthony in that way,» another West executive said. «He’s young, and I’m sure they believe that he can mature into a player who does that. But I’d guess [Orlando] is concerned about having given him a full max with an opt out.»

Rival teams are watching to see if Orlando — either now or in the summer — looks to shed some long-term money, particularly because the Magic will also be headed into extension talks with guard Anthony Black.