NCAA tournament bubble watch: Believe it or not, undefeated Miami (Ohio) may not be a March Madness lock

Miami (Ohio) (28-0)

It’s hard to comprehend how the only undefeated team in college basketball could be on the bubble, but we’re not willing to put anything past the committee if the RedHawks lose one or more of their final three regular-season games and don’t win the MAC tournament.

Yes, Miami didn’t play a strong non-conference schedule. Yes, the MAC is not one of the best conferences in the country. But going 28-0 and being the last undefeated team in the country by a long shot should mean something. And If the RedHawks end up as a double-digit seed, there are going to be a lot of power-conference teams in the No. 6 to No. 7 seed range hoping to avoid them on Selection Sunday.

Remaining games

Feb. 27: at Western Michigan (10-18)
March 3: vs. Toledo (15-13)
March 6: at Ohio (15-13)

Missouri (19-9)

The Tigers are on the bubble thanks to a porous non-conference schedule. Mizzou’s best non-conference win is over Minnesota and the Tigers lost to Nore Dame and got blown out by Kansas and Illinois.

But Mizzou got healthy before its SEC slate began and are on track to get a bye in the conference tournament. The Tigers have wins over Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee on Tuesday night as they now sit 9-6 in conference play with games against Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Arkansas remaining. A 2-1 finish should guarantee that Mizzou isn’t playing in a First Four game in Dayton.

Remaining games

Feb. 28: at Mississippi State (13-15)
March 3: at Oklahoma (14-14)
March 7: vs. No. 20 Arkansas (21-7)

Auburn (15-13)

Don’t be so sure about the Tigers’ NCAA tournament chances. Yes, Auburn has a one-point loss to Houston and a win over St. John’s in non-conference play, but its now 6-9 in the SEC after a 91-79 loss at Oklahoma on Tuesday.

Auburn has lost six of its last seven games — the only win came at Kentucky in a game where Mark Pope said he felt his team was cheated by the officiating. The bright spot for Auburn is that it has games against Ole Miss and LSU remaining before finishing the regular season at Alabama. The Rebels and Tigers from Baton Rouge have a combined conference record of 5-23. But given the way the Auburn Tigers are playing right now, is either game a gimme?

Remaining games

Feb. 28: vs. Ole Miss (11-17)
March 3: vs. LSU (15-13)
March 7: at No. 17 Alabama (21-7)

No 15 St Johns misses 24 straight shots to end blowout loss to No 6 UConn in historic defeat for Rick Pitino

Texas (17-11)

The Longhorns lost 84-71 at home to No. 7 Florida on Wednesday night; an upset win would have been a massive boon for their tournament hopes. Instead, Texas is now 8-7 in the SEC and needs to get one win over its next three games to guarantee a .500 finish in league play.

The loss to Florida came after a loss to Georgia; before that, Texas had reeled off a five-game win streak. However, four of those wins came against the four teams at the bottom of the SEC standings. The other victory? A road win at Missouri. Given the way the Tigers are playing, that could be the win that gets Texas in the tournament.

Remaining games

Feb. 28: at Texas A&M (19-9)
March 4: at No. 20 Arkansas (21-7)
March 7: vs. Oklahoma (14-14)

TCU (18-10)

The Horned Frogs are above .500 in Big 12 play after a 90-78 home win over Arizona State on Tuesday. It was TCU’s fifth win in its last six games as the Frogs have surged back into the NCAA tournament picture after a four-game losing streak at the start of conference play.

Granted, three of those losses came to Kansas, Arizona and BYU with a healthy Richie Saunders. Now TCU has a real chance to get to 10-8 in Big 12 play and have a bye in the Big 12 tournament. That conference record coupled with a Big 12 tourney win should be enough to make the field.

Remaining games

Feb. 28: at Kansas State (11-17)
March 3: at No. 16 Texas Tech (21-7)
March 7: vs. Cincinnati (15-13)

Ohio State(17-11)

Are the Buckeyes’ tournament hopes fading fast? Ohio State lost 74-57 to Iowa on Wednesday night to fall to 9-8 in the Big Ten. It’s Ohio State’s third loss I the last four games and the Buckeyes have not won more than two consecutive games since starting the season 6-0.

Ohio State does have the benefit of being in the top 40 in KenPom’s rankings at No. 39. That’s eight spots behind Texas and two behind Auburn. Plus it’s 12 spots ahead of Missouri. But the Buckeyes may need a couple of wins in the Big Ten tournament to really feel good about their chances of making the big dance.

Remaining games

March 1: vs. No. 8 Purdue (22-5)
March 4: at Penn State (11-17)
March 7: vs. Indiana (17-11)

USC (18-10)

The Trojans are really scuffling as they fade away from the NCAA tournament picture. USC lost its fourth-straight game on Tuesday night in an 81-62 blowout loss at UCLA. That streak has included a loss to fellow bubble team Ohio State, a 36-point home defeat to Illinois and a home loss to an Oregon team that’s one of the worst in the Big Ten. A win over No. 12 Nebraska on Saturday may be imperative to keep the Trojans’ hopes alive barring a big run in the Big Ten tournament.

Remaining games

Feb. 28: vs. No. 12 Nebraska (23-4)
March 4: at Washington (14-14)
March 7: vs. UCLA (19-9)

Santa Clara (23-7)

The Broncos’ chances of getting the No. 2 seed in the West Coast Conference tournament disappeared on Wednesday night with an 86-67 loss at Saint Mary’s. It was Santa Clara’s second loss to the Gaels and they’re now a game back of Saint Mary’s and two games back of Gonzaga with one game to play.

Santa Clara has perhaps the easiest path to an automatic bid via a conference tournament win of any team in this group. But (likely) beating both Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga to win the WCC title after going 0-3 against them in the regular season is a big ask. A win over the Gaels in the WCC semifinals, however, may be a must to guarantee a spot in the tournament.

Remaining game