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Kevin Pelton
Although he averaged 13.9 points per game and shot 29% from 3-point range over the initial eight games with the Orlando Magic — significantly lower than his career shooting percentage of 41% — Desmond Bane remained untroubled.
«It’s all fresh, I believe everyone is searching,» Bane told ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk for a feature story last month. «We [didn’t get] off to the start we wished for. I don’t see it as something to be alarmed about. … I’ve experienced this before … it’s just the beginning of the season, so it’s a hot topic.»
It’s likely that Bane missed a presentation from former ESPN analyst Ben Alamar and ESPN’s Dean Oliver at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March. Had Bane been aware of their findings, it would have reinforced his faith that improvements would come.
Alamar and Oliver utilized NBA data from camera tracking regarding all shots off passes from 2016 to 2024, discovering that shared experience had a substantially greater effect than what traditional wisdom suggested.
This insight sheds light on why Bane and several key players who switched teams last summer, including Cam Johnson of the Denver Nuggets and Myles Turner of the Milwaukee Bucks, began with poor shooting performances before regaining form. It serves as a valuable reminder not to overreact when similar situations arise in the future.
Familiarity is essential for shooting
Alamar and Oliver assessed the outcomes for passing and shooting pairs on catch-and-shoot opportunities. They found both the expected value of shots — based on their placement and defensive pressure — and their accuracy in relation to expectation improved rapidly with every additional attempt between the players.
Regardless of whether teammates spent an entire season together, Alamar and Oliver demonstrated there was a learning curve throughout the season. However, this curve proved particularly challenging for newcomers, as they began shooting approximately 10% lower on equivalent shot quality than what they achieved after 200 combined catch-and-shoot attempts within the season (a high threshold that only 79 pairs reached during the 2024-25 regular season, according to GeniusIQ tracking). By the second season together, they began the season under 6% below their eventual peak, which was notably higher in Year 2, suggesting the advantages of familiarity accumulate beyond a single season.
When assessing shot quality and accuracy collectively, the improvement is substantial. Alamar and Oliver estimated that effective field goal percentage (considering the additional value of 3s) rose from 50% for players’ initial catch-and-shoot attempt together to 57.5% for their 100th. That transition is enough to elevate performance from significantly below league average (around 54% thus far in 2025-26) to above it — simply by playing together.
Immediate impact this season
By Halloween, both Bane and Turner may have left their new fans questioning why their teams invested so heavily in signing them. Orlando traded four first-round picks and a swap to the Memphis Grizzlies for Bane, while the Bucks created cap space for Turner by releasing Damian Lillard and stretching the remaining $110-plus million of Lillard’s contract.
Bane and Turner (a career 36% 3-point shooter who finished at 40% last season) were among the bottom 15 players in the NBA in 3-point percentage for those with at least 25 attempts in October. Johnson, brought to Denver from the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Michael Porter Jr and an unprotected first-round pick in 2032, was barely superior at 32% against his career mark of 39%.
They were not alone in starting off slowly. The 53 NBA players who switched teams in the offseason and had played a minimum of 15 games through Sunday collectively hit just 27% from 3-point range during their debuts and were shooting 33% through four games before regressing to the mean.
We’ve observed this shift occur quickly for Johnson and Turner, who are now making 41% and 39% of their 3-pointers, respectively. Bane’s transition has been more gradual, as his 32% accuracy from beyond the arc would still represent the lowest of his career. Nevertheless, the rest of Bane’s game has improved after a slow start: He has averaged 22.5 PPG, 5.2 APG, and 5.0 RPG over the last 13 games while the Magic have gone 10-3. Bane’s last two games, consecutive 37-point outings, have been his finest performances to date in Orlando.
The impact within the arc this season is even more intriguing. New arrivals made quicker strides after a rough start but continue to shoot worse than returning players. When factoring in player ability using expected 2-point percentages from my SCHOENE projection system, players who switched teams have underperformed their established peers on 2s so far.
Thus far, we have concentrated on the shooting aspect, but Alamar and Oliver’s findings also indicate an adjustment curve for distributors with new teammates. As expected, point guards who changed teams in the summer have encountered a challenging start to the season.
Chris Paul and D’Angelo Russell have both experienced periods out of their teams’ rotations, while Bane’s teammate Tyus Jones, Dennis Schroder, and Anfernee Simons have had their roles diminished. Only Jrue Holiday of the Portland Trail Blazers has shined as a full-time starting point guard on a new squad. The Atlanta Hawks’ Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the Sacramento Kings’ Russell Westbrook have thrived as combo guards.
Multiplicity of familiarity effects
What I appreciate most about Alamar and Oliver’s research is how it effectively clarifies various facets of NBA conventional wisdom. The most apparent is the significance of continuity, a concept I examined back in 2019.
So far this season, the five teams that have accrued over 85% of their minutes from returning players have, on average, exceeded their preseason over/under win total pace by approximately one win each over the initial 20 games. In contrast, the four teams that have retained fewer than 60% of their lineups are all trailing their over/under pace by an average of more than three wins.
This aligns with the research I conducted concerning my preseason win projections, which factor in both box score stats and player impact via adjusted plus-minus. Several years ago, I discovered that these projections functioned differently for players who had changed teams, which I initially attributed mainly to their plus-minus impact, not necessarily carrying over with a different group of teammates.
In hindsight, it’s clear that familiarity played a role in this adjustment. Not only were projections more uncertain for players on new teams, but their offensive ratings also typically declined, which aligns with Alamar and Oliver’s discoveries.
Looking ahead, the importance of familiarity provides essential context for major trades. NBA executives have long been cautious about championship contenders making significant trades midseason, and this research reinforces that caution.
A brief drop in performance should not deter one from pursuing a trade for, for instance, Luka Doncic at the deadline, given the advantages of acquiring a superstar in his prime. However, it may clarify why the Phoenix Suns fell short after trading for Kevin Durant at the 2023 trade deadline, despite being viewed as favorites to win the Western Conference — a situation intensified by Durant participating in only eight regular-season games post-trade due to injuries. Or why Doncic and Kyrie Irving did not start clicking until their first complete season together, which ended with an appearance in the NBA Finals.
Players like Bane, who begin the season with new teams, have ample time to establish chemistry with their new mates. If there’s an expectation for a deadline acquisition to be a game changer, he may not have sufficient time to adjust to his new environment.
This serves as a crucial lesson for decision-makers to assess whether the talent increase from a trade justifies the loss of familiarity. Additionally, it reminds everyone involved not to overreact if a player experiences struggles for a few weeks following a trade. The Magic are undoubtedly pleased they exercised patience with Bane.
