NFL play-off preview: Why road to Super Bowl is ‘most unusual’ in years

A dynasty has fallen, big names have faltered and also-rans have become Super Bowl contenders.

Even veteran NBC analyst Cris Collinsworth has said «this is the most unusual year I can remember in the NFL».

Now 14 teams are set to battle it out in the play-offs, and for the first time in 11 years, the Kansas City Chiefs are not among them.

Defending champions Philadelphia have not been as dominant as last season while pre-season favourites Buffalo have not lived up to that billing.

But for just the second time in 35 years, 11 of the 14 play-off teams gained at least 11 wins in the regular season.

A record five teams have qualified after at least 11 defeats the previous season, with two of them going from worst to first in their division – New England and Chicago – so good luck picking the winner for Super Bowl 60.

«If you ask me to pick a favourite, I don’t know, because you can put something on all of them,» Collinsworth added.

«It’s going to be amazing to watch these young quarterbacks go at it because I don’t know what they will do. This is when legends begin to be built.»

The NFL play-offs feature 14 teams – seven each from the American Football Conference (AFC) and National Football Conference (NFC).

Each conference is kept apart during 12 knockout games over three weeks that will decide which team represents their conference at Super Bowl 60 on 8 February.

The highest remaining seeds in each round have home-field advantage, with top seeds Denver and Seattle getting a bye for week one, known as Wildcard Weekend.

They will enter the fray during the Divisional Round, then the winners of the Conference Championships – effectively the Super Bowl semi-finals – will meet in the title decider at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, home of the San Francisco 49ers.

Seattle and Denver could set up a repeat of the 2014 Super Bowl, which the Seahawks won comfortably, although the Broncos regrouped to beat Carolina in 2016 – the last Super Bowl to be played at Levi’s Stadium.

After reaching five of the past six Super Bowls, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is not in the play-offs for the first time in his career.

But the three-time champion isn’t the only star quarterback missing. This year’s Super Bowl will be the first since 2019 not to feature Mahomes or Joe Burrow (Cincinnati).

Either Mahomes or Lamar Jackson (Baltimore) have been the NFL’s Most Valuable Player in four of the past seven seasons, but the Chiefs, Bengals and Ravens have all failed to reach the post-season.

That has left the race for the AFC Championship wide open, and the path clear for new stars such as Denver’s Bo Nix and New England’s Drake Maye to be immortalised with play-off glory.

Since 2016, only Kansas City, Cincinnati and New England have won the AFC Championship – and none of the Patriots players remain from their last Super Bowl win in 2019.

Top seed Denver have only played one play-off game since 2016, and besides the Broncos and Patriots, Pittsburgh are the only other AFC play-off team to have reached the Super Bowl since 1995.

There are two AFC quarterbacks still standing who have plenty of pedigree, though, so could Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh) and Josh Allen (Buffalo) make their experience count against the young guns?

There is more play-off pedigree in the NFC, with the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams or San Francisco 49ers having reached seven of the past eight Super Bowls.

And the Rams and 49ers feel as if they’ve already been playing play-off football for weeks, having battled it out with Seattle to win the NFL’s toughest division, the NFC West.

The Seahawks beat both in their last three games to prevail with a 14-3 record and go into the post-season on a seven-game win streak.

That also secured the NFC’s top seed – and Seattle are now marginal Super Bowl favourites, ahead of the 12-5 Rams, whose quarterback Matthew Stafford is the MVP favourite.

The 37-year-old, who capped his first season with the Rams by winning the 2022 Super Bowl, has yet to win the award but is rated just ahead of Drake Maye, New England’s second-year quarterback.

Maye, 23, has blossomed under new head coach Mike Vrabel, with the former Patriots player helping them flip their record from 4-13 last season to 14-3.

Caleb Williams is another second-year quarterback who has blossomed under a new head coach, with Chicago’s Ben Johnson helping the Bears improve from 5-12 to 11-6 to claim the NFC’s second seed.

All times GMT

Saturday, 10 January

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers (21:30)

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (01:00 Sun)

Sunday, 11 January

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:30)

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (01:00 Mon)

Monday, 12 January

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:00 Tue)

The Rams kick off Wildcard Weekend at Carolina, who became the seventh team ever to make the play-offs with a losing record (8-9) having stumbled to the NFC South title.

LA must hit the road but Stafford led the league for passing yards and touchdown passes while Puka Nacua posted a career-high 1,715 receiving yards. The Rams also hope to have fellow receiver Davante Adams back from injury.

A host of injuries late in the season, most notably to Micah Parsons, has halted Green Bay’s momentum but they will have quarterback Jordan Love (concussion) back for just the third play-off clash in the NFL’s oldest and most-played rivalry.

Although Chicago surpassed pre-season expectations by winning the NFC North, the pressure is on to avoid going out of the play-offs with what would be a third straight defeat.

The NFC’s other wildcard match-up sees injury-hit San Francisco visit defending champions Philadelphia, who rested most of their starters last Sunday after recovering from a wobble to clinch the NFC East.

After being dumped out by Kansas City in four of the past five years, Buffalo’s reigning MVP Josh Allen hopes to finally reach the Super Bowl, but the Bills must hit the road after New England ended their recent dominance of the AFC East.

And they must visit a Jacksonville team on an eight-game win streak, with Trevor Lawrence looking like the ‘generational talent’ he was billed as when the Jaguars made him the number one draft pick in 2021.

The Patriots aim to avoid an upset at home to the Los Angeles Chargers, whose quarterback Justin Herbert hopes to claim his first play-off win in his sixth year in the NFL.

Houston’s league-leading defence is sure to put four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers under pressure but the 42-year-old, who could retire at the end of the season, can target DK Metcalf again as Pittsburgh’s top receiver returns from suspension for Monday’s game.