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Aaron Schatz
No team in the NFL is without a weakness. Even the best teams have places where they need to improve. That’s especially true in a season like 2025, where it seems like there are no truly dominant teams, and it feels like Super Bowl LX could be anyone’s. So teams don’t want the biggest problem on their roster rearing its ugly head in the most important games.
Below, I looked at weak spots for each of the 12 clinched playoff teams, plus both possible winners of the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens) and NFC South (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers). Some of these stats are particularly concerning because of who these teams might face in the postseason. Others are less of a dilemma because prospective opponents are not strong in these particular areas.
Let’s start with the Seattle Seahawks and go in order of Super Bowl chances via ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Jump to:
49ers | Bears | Bills | Broncos
Bucs | Chargers | Eagles | Jaguars
Packers | Panthers | Patriots | Rams
Ravens | Seahawks | Steelers | Texans
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 13.4%
Concerning weakness: Covering tight ends
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The Seahawks have the best defense in the league, according to DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), and they rank fourth by FPI. So there’s not a lot going wrong for that unit. But they do have a clear weakness in covering tight ends.
Once we adjust for the quality of the tight ends it has faced, Seattle ranks 29th in allowing 67 yards per game to the position. Obviously, that’s a problem when the Seahawks’ main rival is the Rams, who run 13 personnel (three tight ends) all the time. The Rams’ tight ends combined for seven catches, 88 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 at Seattle.
Safety Nick Emmanwori has been highly regarded in his rookie season, but his coverage numbers against tight ends are not impressive. And the Seahawks might have to get through top tight ends, such as the 49ers’ George Kittle and the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert, if they want to make it to the Super Bowl.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 12.1%
Concerning weakness: Defending slot receivers
Denver also has one of the NFL’s best defenses this season, led by a vicious pass rush that leads the league in sacks (64). However, if opponents can get a pass off, they can take advantage of the Broncos’ slot cornerbacks Ja’Quan McMillian and Jahdae Barron.
Denver ranks only 27th in DVOA against passes to slot receivers, allowing 7.6 yards per attempt. The good news for the Broncos is that only two AFC playoff teams rank in the top 10 in the number of pass attempts to slot receivers this season: the Chargers and themselves.
Week 17 Monday night loss, the Rams ranked third with 1.0 second-level yards allowed per carry, which is defined as gains that come between 5 and 10 yards after the line of scrimmage. They allow an NFL-best 0.3 open-field yards per carry, which is defined as gains that come 11 or more yards after the line of scrimmage. Preventing long runs is where the Rams shine.
Up front, however, Los Angeles has stuffed opposing running backs for a loss or no gain on only 12.2% of runs. Only Cincinnati is worse. That really becomes a problem when the opponent only needs a yard or two to move the chains or score. The Rams have allowed a conversion on 74% of short-yardage runs — defined as third down, fourth down or the goal line with 1 to 2 yards to go (that ranks 26th).
It’s not a good weakness to have against this playoff field. Most of the Rams’ possible playoff opponents have converted short-yardage runs over 70% of the time this season, including Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco, Carolina and Tampa Bay.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 10.5%
Concerning weakness: Lack of a pass rush
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The 49ers have been hit by a ton of injuries. Most of the affected offensive players have returned to the lineup, unlike the defense.
Among the players out for the season are edge rushers Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams, who both sustained torn ACLs. As a result, the 49ers have had almost no pass rush this season. They rank 29th in pass rush win rate (30%) and last in pressure rate (25%). As a result, the Niners are 25th in pass defense DVOA when they do not blitz. (They’re 17th when they do blitz.)
Playing defense without much pass pressure puts more demand on quarterback Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ offense to excel. So far, they’ve been able to do that.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 8.5%
Concerning weakness: Quarterback Jalen Hurts facing a blitz
For a long time, this would have been an easy choice to highlight Hurts’ struggles against zone coverage. However, he has played better against zone in recent weeks. For the season, Hurts ranks 16th in DVOA against zone, which compares favorably with his rank of 13th against man coverage.
Instead, we should look at how Hurts has had trouble with extra pass rushers. He is 20th in DVOA against the blitz this season — down to 30th if we only look at games since Week 10, with just 6.0 net yards per play. I’m not sure that opponents have gotten the message here. Hurts has faced a 36% blitz rate this season, third in the NFL behind the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and the Commanders’ Marcus Mariota. However, that rate has actually gone down to 28% since Week 10.
Most of the NFC playoff field is not particularly blitz-heavy, with the Buccaneers as the clear exception. But teams such as the Seahawks and Bears might blitz more if they know that’s a weakness for Philadelphia.
Drake Maye after his first read
Of course, Maye is a leading MVP candidate, and it is hard to find holes in his game — but there is one. FTN Data tracks whether quarterbacks throw to their first read or not. On first-read throws, Maye ranks fifth in DVOA. However, if he has to go to a later read, Maye drops to 22nd.
The problem is getting him off his first read. Maye is one of the league’s best quarterbacks against the blitz, and among quarterbacks who have played the full season, only Philly’s Jalen Hurts and Seattle’s Sam Darnold were knocked off their first read less often.
Among AFC playoff qualifiers, there are two teams that are above average at getting the opposing quarterback off his first read: the Steelers and the Jaguars. And while the Broncos are only average at forcing second reads, they have the best defensive DVOA when they do.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 6.2%
Concerning weakness: Defending the pass on later downs
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The Packers’ pass defense has been outstanding on first down. It ranks third in DVOA and allows an NFL-low 5.1 net yards per dropback. The problem comes on later downs. On second, third and fourth downs, the Packers rank 26th in defensive DVOA and allow 5.9 net yards per dropback. It has been particularly bad since edge rusher Micah Parsons went down with a torn ACL, as the Packers have allowed 8.3 net yards per dropback on second through fourth downs in their past three games.
This is going to be a problem in the playoffs. On second down, three of the four best passing teams in the league are the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers. And the league’s best passing teams on third down include the 49ers and Eagles.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 5.9%
Concerning weakness: Run defense
It’s pretty clear that to beat the Bills, you must run on them. Buffalo’s undersized defense ranks 31st in run defense DVOA. Is there a particular type of run that works best? No — they all work.
Against runs marked by FTN Data as man blocking (iso, duo, power), the Bills allow a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry and are 29th in DVOA. Against runs marked as zone blocking, the Bills are better in yards per carry (4.9, which ranks 29th) but worse in DVOA (31st).
The good news for the Bills is that the run-heavy Colts missed the playoffs, and they handled the Steelers’ running game in Week 13. But the Ravens would be a terrible matchup for them.
Aireontae Ersery and left guard Tytus Howard are among the most penalized players in the league. It’s going to be an issue in the postseason against fierce pass rushes like the Broncos and the Steelers, who each rank in the top five for pass rush win rate.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 5.3%
Concerning weakness: Stagnating run game
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The Jaguars are red hot right now with a six-game winning streak. Their passing game has been on fire since acquiring wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. And quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing at the top of his game. The Jaguars ranked 21st in pass offense DVOA through Week 9, but since Week 10, they rank fifth.
However, the run game has completely slowed down. Jacksonville ranked sixth in DVOA through Week 9, but that dropped to 26th since Week 10. Not including scrambles, the Jaguars have dropped from 4.5 yards per carry to 3.7 yards per carry since Week 10. Speedy rookie Bhayshul Tuten should return from a finger injury by the playoffs, but the Jaguars really need better blocking to stay on schedule when they run the ball.
The Jaguars will need to produce on the ground against defenses like the Chargers and Bills, which are better against the pass than the run.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 4.7%
Concerning weakness: Covering tight ends
The Chargers rank just 27th in DVOA against tight ends, and this has not improved in recent weeks. Opposing tight ends have a 77% catch rate against the Chargers since Week 9. The Chiefs’ Travis Kelce and Eagles’ Dallas Goedert each had 70-yard games against Los Angeles in recent weeks.
The problem is not the great safety Derwin James Jr., but rather when the Chargers end up with a linebacker in coverage. They’ll need to avoid that when covering possible playoff opponents such as Broncos’ Evan Engram, Patriots’ Hunter Henry and Bills’ Dalton Kincaid.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 4.3%
Concerning weakness: Passing in the red zone
The Ravens have been awful this season when the field is condensed and there’s less room to work with. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has been particularly bad, ranking last in both passing DVOA and EPA per dropback inside the 20-yard line.
With the injuries he’s dealt with in 2025, Jackson hasn’t had the mobility to do the magical things outside the pocket that have always given him an advantage in the red zone. And the Ravens don’t exactly make up for it with a great running game, as they are only 19th in rush DVOA in the red zone.
The good news for Baltimore is that this season’s best defenses in the red zone are primarily teams from the NFC playoff field. Denver (third) is a clear exception, but no other AFC team is in the top 10.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who joined the team in Week 9. The problem is when opponents can get their slot receivers onto other defenders — primarily cornerback Nick McCloud, safety Jaquan Brisker and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.
Most of Chicago’s prospective playoff opponents actually rank quite low in how often they throw to slot receivers, although Tampa Bay is an exception.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 1.2%
Concerning weakness: Dependence on short passes
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At age 42, quarterback Aaron Rodgers does not have the arm he once had, and the Steelers’ passing game is designed around getting the ball out fast. Rodgers has an average depth of target of just 6.1 yards, tied with the Browns’ Dillon Gabriel for the shortest in the league this season. Rodgers has thrown 86% of his passes at 15 air yards or shorter, again second behind Gabriel.
Why does this matter? First, the Steelers haven’t been particularly efficient in this short passing game. Rodgers’ DVOA on these passes is slightly below the NFL average. Second, most of the AFC playoff field is very strong against short passes. The top 10 defenses against short passes include Houston, Jacksonville and Buffalo. The Broncos and Chargers are also above average.
FPI chance to win Super Bowl: 0.6%
Concerning weakness: Defense has fallen apart
We don’t need to focus on a single down, type of coverage or even an aspect of the Tampa Bay defense. The whole thing has fallen apart over the past few weeks.
Through Week 8, the Bucs defensive DVOA was eighth against the pass and sixth against the run. Since their Week 9 bye, the Bucs are 27th against the pass and 22nd against the run. Over that same time period, the Bucs have dropped from fourth to 17th in pass rush win rate (35.3%). Their run stop win rate is about the same, but the Bucs have allowed more yardage at the second and third levels.
There hasn’t been big personnel changes — just an overall decline. And it might cost Tampa Bay a playoff spot.
Week 13 upset, but this is not a trend that has gotten any better in recent weeks. And the top offenses on third down this season include the 49ers, Packers, Eagles and Rams.
