The true do-or-die time has come for the Kansas City Chiefs. They could be eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15.
Before the season, the Chiefs missing the playoffs seemed very unlikely. The thought of them having three meaningless games at the end of the season after they were eliminated was inconceivable. But with a loss to the Chargers it’s possible the Chiefs can be officially eliminated in Week 15. There are multiple ways in which it could happen, but the cleanest is if the Bills, Jaguars and Texans win in addition to the Chargers beating the Chiefs.
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Even if the Chiefs aren’t mathematically eliminated after a loss this week, the odds of them making the playoffs would be microscopic. It’s not like they have a great shot even with a win. According to NFL.com, their playoff odds would rise from 12% to 19% by beating the Chargers.
On the other hand, the Chargers’ playoff odds would rise to 93% with a win. It has been a very good season for them, overcoming injuries to put themselves in great position for a playoff spot. One of their biggest wins came back in Week 1, when they knocked off the Chiefs in Brazil. Winning Sunday would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs, though that probably won’t be necessary.
(Yahoo Sports/Grant Thomas)
The Chargers overcoming injuries for a 9-4 start is commendable, but the story of the NFL season has been the Chiefs and their dip to a 6-7 record with four games remaining. For those hoping to see the Chiefs officially out of the postseason picture, Sunday could be the day.
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Here are the other Week 15 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Had we known three months ago that this Week 15 game would be a potential clincher for the AFC East championship, it would have made sense. The Bills were expected to win the division by multiple games.
But there was a twist. It’s the Patriots, at 11-2, who can clinch the AFC East with a win over the 9-4 Bills. The Patriots already beat the Bills in Buffalo this season, part of a 10-game winning streak. It seems like an AFC East title is almost inevitable for the Patriots, so aside from the celebration of ending the Bills’ streak of five division titles in a row, the win might be more important in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Patriots and Broncos are tied for the top spot, and each of those teams has a tough game on Sunday.
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Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
The Broncos have a great shot to win the division. DVOA’s projections have them at a 91.6% chance to win the AFC West. But Denver also doesn’t want to open the door for the Chargers to make a late push. The Broncos also are pushing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and this week could provide more clarity in that race.
Denver will have a challenge with the Packers, who took over first place in the NFC North with a win over the Bears in Week 14. The Packers have only an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and a Week 16 game at Chicago should practically decide the NFC North championship. Perhaps Green Bay might get caught looking ahead a bit.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
It seems like the Lions and Bears are destined to meet in Week 18 with one NFC playoff spot on the line. There’s a long way to go before then, and a win over the Rams would put Detroit in better position to push for a playoff spot. The problem is they haven’t had a two-game winning streak since Week 5. Detroit is coming off a win over Dallas in Week 14.
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The Rams are in a tough spot this week. The Lions are a quality team. But Los Angeles’ game of the season comes four days later when they play at the Seahawks in Seattle on a Thursday night. The Rams and Seahawks are tied atop the NFC West at 10-3. Like the Packers, maybe the Rams will be looking ahead a bit.
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks
The Colts are seemingly on the way out of the playoff picture after a season-ending injury to quarterback Daniel Jones. But they still have a shot if Philip Rivers or another quarterback can save them. It would be a great story if they rally to make the playoffs, and a heartbreak if they go from 7-1 to out of the playoffs.
Due to Jones’ injury last week, the Seahawks suddenly found themselves with a much easier game in Week 15, before their Rams showdown. If the Seahawks can beat a shorthanded Colts team at home on Sunday, then follow that up with a win over the Rams on Thursday, they would have the inside track to win the NFC West and also get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They’ll be rooting for a Lions win on Sunday as well.
