“The Monster” is back.
Naoya Inoue returns to the ring on Saturday, headlining a Riyadh card titled “The Night of the Samurai,” where the Japanese superstar and pound-for-pound contender defends his undisputed super bantamweight world championship against Alan Picasso.
The show will stream live on DAZN on December 27, starting at 4:00 am ET, and Bad Left Hook will be here with live updates and results.
Who will win Inoue vs Picasso?
The 32-year-old Inoue (31-0, 27 KO) has been a machine since he turned pro over 13 years ago. He’s won world titles at 108, 115, 118, and 122, and become one of the sport’s best fighters, a position he’s held for quite a long time now.
He is not seen as unbeatable, necessarily, but he has turned back all legitimate challengers, and there’s never been much for controversy around the outcome of an Inoue fight. Usually, he gets the stoppage, for one thing. And when he doesn’t, it’s rarely all that competitive, often seeing Inoue so fearsome that opponents just stop trying to engage, as we saw last time out when Murodjon Akhmadaliev and team talked plenty about what they were going to do, then timidly limped to a wide decision loss, the only victory a questionable “moral” one in going the distance, something Inoue hadn’t done since his 2019 Fight of the Year with Nonito Donaire.
Picasso (32-0-1, 17 KO) is next up. The 25-year-old Mexican fighter has actually fought his last three bouts as a featherweight, in stay-busy sort of affairs, before finally getting the date set with Inoue. The best win of his career is either Azat Hovhannisyan in 2024 or Kyonosuke Kameda this past July, and neither opponent is near the level of Inoue. If you haven’t seen Picasso fight, you can check out the full bout with Kameda for a look at his most recent form:
Inoue isn’t flawless, but it’s hard to see Picasso winning this unless Inoue is dramatically worse than the fighter we saw in Nagoya three months ago. The biggest worry for him might actually be activity; it’s not that he took much punishment in his wins this year over Ye Joon Kim, Ramon Cardenas, or Akhmadaliev, but beyond the three fight nights, that’s now four training camps over the last 12 months, and those miles quietly add up for a fighter, too, especially one who’s been around as long as Inoue.
He and his team have always seemed intelligent, though, and one doubts Inoue would have accepted a December date — even for big, Riyadh Season money — if they felt he wasn’t going to be 100 percent ready. That’s bad news for Picasso. Most of the matchup looks like bad news for Picasso.
You have to fight the fight, though. Maybe Picasso has levels we haven’t seen yet, because he hasn’t had to go to them. The trouble with picking him based on that is that it’s just as likely — more likely, probably — that he does not. We know Inoue’s levels. We know how great he is. Inoue himself has said many times over that he doesn’t do anything exceptional, he just drills the fundamentals and does them right. That, of course, is actually pretty exceptional, and has led him to a remarkable, Hall of Fame-bound career.
That career will continue and lead him to the biggest fight of his career, I expect, and I don’t think he’ll have much trouble. Picasso is a legit opponent and contender, but he’s too hittable, just isn’t on this level. We’ll see that play out. Prediction: Inoue TKO-7
Night of the Samurai undercard predictions
Junto Nakatani vs Sebastian Hernandez
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Junto Nakatani (31-0, 24 KO) may be building his case as Inoue’s successor, and now he’s in his division. He’s won world titles at flyweight, super flyweight, and bantamweight, and now at 122 lbs, he’s taking a legitimate test against Mexico’s Sebastian Hernandez (20-0, 18 KO), a 25-year-old who is considered a contender, but is also fairly untested to date, and has never fought with a 12-round distance.
The 27-year-old Nakatani is, like Inoue, no one-trick pony. This isn’t a guy who’s built a record on easy opponents and being a power puncher or the like. He’s been a world class, pound-for-pound sort of guy for years now, mowing down solid opposition in world title bouts. He’s well-rounded in his skill set; he can punch, yes, but it’s his strong fundamentals that allow him to show that power, much like Inoue.
The plan is for Inoue and Nakatani to meet in a major showdown at the Tokyo Dome in 2026. Both have to win on Saturday for that to happen, at least as it’s imagined right now, a proper Japanese mega-fight. (In theory, Inoue could probably lose and the fight could still happen, but it wouldn’t be what it is right now.) The footage you can see on Hernandez tells you he can fight, but he hasn’t had the sort of opposition that you can tell you he’s world class, either. He’s listed as having a slight height advantage on Nakatani, who is often the taller man, but Nakatani has the longer reach, and I’m confident he makes it to Inoue unscathed, though you can never just ignore the power of someone with Hernandez’s KO percentage. Maybe it’s fraudulent, but maybe not.
I think we might see Nakatani feel it out in the early rounds, and he doesn’t always dominate every second of a fight. He operates with the confidence that he’ll be able to hold the lead and potentially finish things off, and I think we’ll see him in a firm advantage and then score a stoppage in the mid-to-late rounds. Prediction: Nakatani TKO-9
Willibaldo Garcia vs Kenshiro Teraji
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Mexico’s Willibaldo Garcia (23-6-2, 13 KO) is defending his IBF super flyweight title here. The 36-year-old veteran is considered one of the sport’s softer world titlists; he and Rene Calixto went to a draw trying to settle this vacancy a year ago, and Garcia won a split decision in the rematch this past May. Prior to that, Garcia was never considered a proper top contender or anything, though he did give both Alexandro Santiago and Paul Butler tough fights in the early years of this decade, and his other four losses came early in his career.
But for a guy who turned pro at age 27 and started his career 1-4, Garcia has done exceptionally well, and there are a couple of reasons to not count him out in this fight.
- Hey, he’s here. He has the belt. He has scrapped and claws his way into a position of sincere relevance in the sport, and that takes determination and at least some real ability. There are guys who win world titles who aren’t the true idea of “world-level” or “world title quality,” but nobody who wins even the weakest of a Big Four title belt stinks. They all have something or other.
- Kenshiro Teraji is past his best days, and coming off of a loss, and he’s moving up in weight.
The 33-year-old “Amazing Boy” is coming up in weight to the 115 lb division, having dropped his WBC flyweight title in an upset loss to Ricardo Sandoval in July. Teraji (25-2, 16 KO) rebounded well when he lost a light flyweight title to Masamichi Yabuki back in 2021, but he hadn’t passed into his 30s yet, either. He got emphatic revenge on Yabuki in a rematch and eventually moved up from 108 to 112, and between his losses, was 7-0, all of them world title fights.
He’s experienced, he’s tough, he’s a good fighter. But good fighters hit the wall eventually, and it’s possible we’re there with Teraji. Of the three big fights on this card, this one seems the likeliest upset to me, but I’m still not picking it. I think we get a really entertaining battle here, with Garcia ultimately outgunned, but Teraji showing signs that a super flyweight title run could be short-lived. He’s never been a great defensive fighter, and his instincts are part of that. It takes a lot to beat him, though. It’s a chance for Garcia to “legitimize” himself, while Kenshiro obviously wants to establish himself in a new division and become a three-division world champion.
It’s worth noting that Garcia’s never been stopped, even when he was early in his pro career and being booked as a as a nobody, repeatedly in the role where he was meant to lose. Prediction: Teraji UD-12
