Isaac “Pitbull” Cruz vs Lamont Roach
I think this is a pretty good fight. I don’t know how many people are going to be interested in paying $75 for it, 19 days away from Christmas, but PBC doesn’t really have many options anymore and haven’t since Showtime Boxing was killed, as PBC had, like many other promoters, already worn out their welcome with pretty much every TV outlet there might possibly be by that point. It was inevitable, but it happened, and now we’re here.
Cruz (28-3-1, 18 KO) is reliably entertaining but he was small and stocky at 135, let alone at 140, where he’s 2-1 and lost to the decidedly not-elite Jose Valenzuela, but also did beat current welterweight titlist Rolly Romero. Cruz has one speed, basically, he comes forward and fights. He doesn’t have big power, really, but he can do damage if he’s able to land enough.
Realistically, Cruz, now 27, may have peaked in his tough, competitive, but fair loss to Tank Davis back in 2021, and that was four years ago now. He’s 6-1 since then and had a secondary paper belt at 140 for a moment, and he “can” headline pay-per-views (how capably he can is another story), but really, his career hasn’t actually grown since that loss.
The one speed makes him extremely matchup dependent, and I think this one with Roach (25-1-2, 10 KO) could go either way. Roach, 30, pushed the aforementioned Tank Davis to a draw in March, which a lot of people thought Roach deserved to win. Davis immediately talked a big game about doing a quick turnaround rematch, then it was going to be a fairly quick turnaround, then a normal-for-most turnaround, and then Davis ducked the fight entirely to chase absurd exhibition money — absurd in how much it was, absurd in general — which he now doesn’t get because he yet again ran afoul of the law.
Smartly, Roach is looking to move on with his career, and this is about as high-profile a bout as he was going to get right now, in part because there aren’t a lot of Big Stars between 130 and 140 at the moment, and in part because he looked so sharp, so fully-formed as a pro boxer in that draw with Davis that, boxing being how it is, he’s now going to be avoided. Roach doesn’t bring a big fan base and doesn’t have the ability to draw money or even a half-bogus reputation for it.
It’s cliche, but whoever first imposes their will on this fight will win it. If Roach can fluster Davis, make him miss, box and move, keep Pitbull from building that downhill momentum, I think he wins handily. But if Cruz can keep his hands moving, keep his head dug into or flying at Roach’s chest, and turn it into a firefight, Pitbull probably wins this thing.
Both of them are tough dudes, they’ve each got grit. Roach would be smarter to not spend too much time making sure everyone knows that, because that will result in Cruz rounds. I don’t think we see a stoppage in this one, but I do think it has a strong chance of being at least a pretty good fight to watch, and if neither man is able to sustain an imposed will for very long, this could be back-and-forth, ebbs and flows and all that, and debatable on the cards
I think it’ll be competitive and fairly close, but Roach will pull it out. Prediction: Roach by decision
Pitbull vs Roach undercard predictions
- O’Shaquie Foster vs Stephen Fulton: Foster (23-3, 12 KO) has his WBC super featherweight title on the line against Fulton (23-1, 8 KO), who still holds the WBC featherweight title, and is looking to become a three-division titlist. Remember when that claim could make for a pretty solid Hall of Fame case by itself? It just isn’t anymore, with respect to Fulton — if he pulls it off — and, like, a lot of fighters in today’s era. And I think Fulton will win this one. Foster’s a good fighter and another of my favorite boxing stories in recent years, because I remember watching him seemingly flame out as a mid-level prospect on ShoBox, losing to Samuel Teah and Rolando Chinea. And he kept going. And he started winning against better and better opponents, and now he’s a two-time world champion at 130 lbs. I think Fulton’s steadiness will win him this one, though. He’s a guy that stays pretty calm under pressure, uses his jab nicely, just a very sound, sturdy fighter. Foster’s good, and this is a good matchup, but I’m taking Philly’s Fulton to edge it. Fulton by decision
- Erislandy Lara vs Johan Gonzalez: Being totally honest, I wasn’t really dying to see Janibek vs Lara, though it’s about as good a middleweight matchup as could be made. It’s just that Lara (31-3-3, 19 KO) is 42 years old — a young 42, perhaps, but 42, and hasn’t faced anyone who was a genuine threat to him in … brother, it’s been damn near seven years since he fought Brian Castano — I mean, Brian Castano hasn’t fought in over three years. And Janibek is a machine, which, well — Janibek popped on a drug test, and the fight is rightfully off. I believe, with some admiration, that Lara belongs in the Hall of Fame of Boxing Grift for walking around claiming to be a world champion at middleweight with a resume of Cornflake LaManna, Spike O’Sullivan, Michael Zerafa, and an aged, blown-up Danny Garcia, and 34-year-old Gonzalez (36-4, 34 KO) isn’t much more of a threat than any of them. The record tells you he can punch, if you only glance at it; a deeper look tells you can he punch in Venezuela and Panama, where it’s real easy to run up a record. He’s tough and a legit pro, but not a legit contender. Lara does what he wants here; if he feels like pressing, he’ll stop Gonzalez at some point. If he feels like ripping him to pieces with that old man laser left hand early, he will. If he feels like playing it safe and winning 120-108, he will. I’m going to hope for some good holiday spirit toward the viewing audience. Lara by TKO
- Jesus Ramos Jr vs Shane Mosley Jr: I really like this one, but I really like Mosley Jr (22-4, 12 KO). Despite being second generation, the son of a terrific fighter, Mosley Jr came to boxing late, not making his pro debut until he was 23, and he barely had any amateur career. He lost his third fight, a four-rounder. But he kept plugging away. He lost to David Toussaint in 2017. But he kept plugging away. He’s willed himself into being a credible, solid pro, when it would have probably been very easy for him to give it up at the first or second sign of adversity, and with the clear evidence that he could not live up to his father’s career. But he’s just kept fighting on. At the moment, he’s won five in a row. Ramos (23-1, 19 KO) is the better fighter on paper. The 24-year-old southpaw is part of another boxing family, and his loss to Erickson Lubin was debatable. He’s bounced back with three wins, settling in, it seems, as a middleweight. Ramos will win this, and at some point Mosley really will have to consider whether he’s done all he is capable of in boxing. He’s maxed out, and if he doesn’t win this, does he keep going yet again, and to what end? Ramos by decision
- Jai Opetaia vs Huseyin Cinkara: I mean, come on. Opetaia (28-0, 22 KO) is the best, nastiest, most destructive cruiserweight in boxing, and has been for a few years now. Cinkara (23-0, 19 KO) is a 40-year-old German with a soft record, a sanctioning body special nonsense mandatory. Cinkara’s going to get thrashed in short order. (Now that I’ve been so certain about this, and so borderline (at best) insulting toward Cinkara’s chances, watch this be a lot tougher for Opetaia than expected. (He’ll still win, though.)) Opetaka TKO-4
- Shabaz Mawsoud vs Peter McGrail: Glad this one got rescheduled. McGrail (12-1, 6 KO) is a good, skilled boxer who got caught a couple years ago by Ja’Rico O’Quinn. It happens. McGrail was dominating that fight and O’Quinn knocked him out. There was meant to be a rematch; instead, O’Quinn hasn’t fought since. McGrail has won four straight over solid opponents, but he did get some trouble from Rhys Edwards, too. I think McGrail, 29, sometimes gets a bit ahead of himself, fights a bit too puffed-out and over-confident. Masoud (14-0, 4 KO) would not be a good choice to do that against. Masoud, also 29, isn’t a puncher, but the guy can box and he’s tough, too. He fought his ass off to beat Liam Davies just over 13 months ago, and if McGrail isn’t better than he was against Edwards, Masoud’s going to beat him. I’m going with McGrail to hold it together enough over the 12 rounds and win the European 122 lb title. McGrail by decision
