There are 13 games left in Week 10 after the Broncos beat the Raiders 10-7 on Thursday night. To get ready for the rest of the action, our NFL analysts have you covered on last-minute prep.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to watch, and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favorite bet for Week 10. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.
Will cornerback Sauce Gardner be the same player schematically with the Colts? Is there really fantasy upside for three Giants players? Can Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett make history against the Jets? How will the Patriots fare in Tampa Bay? And what was the most interesting tidbit from J.J. McCarthy’s return for the Vikings?
We dig into all that, starting with the trade deadline move that shocked the NFL.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Best bet of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 10 winners
Will new Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner play press coverage against Falcons wide receiver Drake London?
Through nine weeks, Gardner has played press coverage 54% of the time, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s the second most by any corner with at least 150 coverage snaps (just behind the Chiefs’ Trent McDuffie at 55%). It remains to be seen if that pattern will continue now that Gardner is on the Colts. For what it’s worth, Charvarius Ward had a 34% press rate when he was healthy for Indy this season, which is well short of Gardner but still 11th-highest.
If Gardner continues to rely on the press, it will set up an interesting matchup against London. The Falcons wide receiver has the highest target rate in the league against press coverage (minimum of 150 routes) at 43%. But despite the volume, London has not been as efficient against press (1.6 yards per route run) as he has been against normal or off coverage (2.8).
against the Giants?
The simple answer is yes, as everyone runs well against New York. But the Giants appear to be particularly cushy opponents for the Bears, who just witnessed rookie running back Kyle Monangai rush for 176 yards in a Week 9 win over the Bengals.
New York is allowing 6.4 yards per outside zone run to their opponents (worst in the league) and a 56% success rate on outside zone runs (also worst). And those numbers are worse than the Giants’ average against non-outside zone runs (5.3 and 48%, respectively). And guess who runs outside zone at the second-highest rate in the league? The Bears at 52% of the time.
Will the Chargers be able to stop the Steelers’ pass rush?
I don’t see how. The Chargers rank 29th in pass block win rate (54.6%), but on snaps without Joe Alt — who is now out for the season after ankle surgery — that number drops to the worst in the NFL (51.8%).
The Steelers, who are third in pass rush win rate (48.1%), are probably among the last teams the Chargers wanted to immediately face after losing Alt. Between T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, the Steelers can bring relentless heat at edge. And who is going to stop them? Whatever combination of Jamaree Salyer, Austin Deculus, Trevor Penning, Trey Pipkins III and Bobby Hart the Chargers come up with at tackle, they’re not going to feel good about that matchup. And it’s not like the interior will have an easy time with Cameron Heyward, either. All I can say to the Chargers’ offensive line is good luck.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings (43.6% rostered)
McCarthy has scored 18-plus fantasy points in two of his three starts this season. The accuracy (57.6%) is still a work in progress, but having wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison gives him strong upside. Plus, McCarthy has added value as a runner (16 attempts for two touchdowns).
The Ravens have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. With Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Joe Flacco on bye, McCarthy is a viable streaming option.
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Kirk Herbstreit shares his optimism for J.J. McCarthy
Kirk Herbstreit joins «The Pat McAfee Show» and shares his confidence in J.J. McCarthy with the Vikings.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants (40.0% rostered)
Johnson has scored five touchdowns in his past six games, including at least 10 fantasy points in four of them. Since Week 6, he ranks second for New York in targets, trailing only Wan’Dale Robinson. Johnson is a playmaker Dart can leverage and should continue to see valuable looks near the goal line. He draws a favorable Week 10 matchup against the Bears, who have allowed the third-most passing touchdowns this season (20).
Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants (30.4% rostered)
With running back Cam Skattebo on injured reserve, the Giants used a two-man backfield in Week 9 with Singletary and Tyrone Tracy Jr. Singletary led in touches and scrimmage yards, handling most of the early-down and goal-line work. After Tracy appeared to tweak something late in the game, Singletary took over nearly every snap in the fourth quarter.
New York’s backfield remains a timeshare, but Singletary has the more stable role heading into Week 10. Also, Chicago’s defense has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards this season.
Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants (27.3% rostered)
Let’s stick with another Giants skill player here, as Chicago’s defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Slayton led the Giants in receiving last week with five receptions for 62 yards, playing a season-high 89% of the snaps. He’ll continue operating as the primary deep threat for Dart with Malik Nabers out for the season. The matchup against Chicago makes Slayton a viable flex option for fantasy managers.
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Marcus Mariota, QB, Washington Commanders (9.2% rostered)
Since Jayden Daniels is sidelined by a dislocated elbow, Mariota is now firmly on the streaming radar against the Lions. Detroit has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, including 18.9 to McCarthy in Week 9. Since Washington is a sizable underdog, Mariota could see 30-plus pass attempts. He also adds value with his rushing ability.
Solak: Don’t be surprised if …
Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett becomes the first NFL player with consecutive 4-plus sack games
There have been 131 players with four or more sacks in a single game, and only three have done it twice in one season. In Garrett’s last game, he sacked Patriots quarterback Drake Maye five times. Entering that game, Maye had a sack-to-pressure rate of 29% and was pressured on 30% of his dropbacks. The Jets’ Justin Fields enters this game with a sack-to-pressure rate of 27%, but he is pressured on 39% of his dropbacks. And the Jets could be trailing in this one, leading to more pass-rushing opportunities late. History is in the cards Sunday.
Detroit puts something extra on Washington
The No. 1 seed Lions suffered one of the most embarrassing upsets of the entire 2024 season against the Commanders, who beat them 45-31 in the divisional round at their home barn. Quarterback Jared Goff acknowledged this week that there’s «added motivation» heading to Washington. The Commanders’ defense is reeling, and the offense has lost all of its wind from last season. If the Lions are up 21 in the fourth quarter, I won’t be surprised if the entire starting offense is back out there to make it 28.
Browns’ Harold Fannin Jr. leads all tight ends in receiving
The post-bye rookie bump is real for offensive skill players, and Fannin’s role was already expanding before the bye. I expect offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, who was just given playcalling duties, to prioritize getting Fannin the ball in space and downfield. Even without Gardner, the Jets’ cornerbacks are better than they are given credit for. This Cleveland passing attack will run through the tight ends, and if the Browns find themselves trailing, Fannin could be in for a career day.
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Why fantasy managers should choose the Browns’ defense in Week 10
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down why he’s high on the Browns’ defense going into their Week 10 matchup vs. Jets.
Bowen: Key matchup to watch
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye vs. Bucs coach Todd Bowles’ blitzes
Maye’s 93.2 QBR versus the blitz is tops in the league, but he will face some different pressure looks from Bowles’ defensive unit. The Bucs don’t blitz the most in the league (31.9% rate ranks ninth), but they blitz their defensive backs at a league-high 20.4%. New England’s success here will depend on Maye’s ability to identify post-snap secondary movement and third-level pressure.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 10
New England Patriots +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England has led at halftime in eight of nine games, most in the league. The Patriots dictate tempo, convert on third down and play mistake-free football behind a poised young quarterback. Tampa Bay’s offense, meanwhile, has cratered to just 27% on third downs over its past three games. That’s the worst possible timing against a defense allowing a league-low third-down conversion rate. New England’s efficiency and structure will travel to Tampa. Patriots at +120 also feels right.
NFL Nation: Quarterback questions
What are you hearing on how Daniel Jones can bounce back from last week’s loss?
One of the things the Colts have come to love about Jones is his even-keeled nature. When the Colts got off to their unexpected hot start, he never let up. Now, with the Colts trying to rebound from a difficult loss, the first in which Jones and the offense have been questioned, the Colts are seeing much of the same from Jones.
«He’s been playing lights-out for us, and he was the same guy even [when] playing lights-out,» coach Shane Steichen said. «And it’s going to be the same this week.» — Stephen Holder, Colts reporter
Game picks from our NFL experts »
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Will Washington’s offensive game plan shift at all under Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels sidelined?
Not a whole lot, considering they have similar styles. Both are comfortable running the ball and operating the run-pass option and quick game favored by offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. The problem for both quarterbacks is how defenses are taking away some of that by playing more man coverage lately.
But there are some differences. When Washington goes no-huddle and more up-tempo, Mariota typically likes to go at a faster pace. The problem this season, however, is having a defense that can’t afford quick three-and-outs by the offense. Still, if Washington wants to play faster, Mariota likes doing so. Also, Mariota is more apt to run on a designed playcall rather than scramble, which is what Daniels will do more often. — John Keim, Commanders reporter
What was the most interesting thing you heard on J.J. McCarthy’s return in Week 9?
McCarthy is working consciously to establish himself as a threat outside the pocket, whether on scrambles or off-schedule passes. He scored his second rushing touchdown of the season against the Lions and also attempted 7 of 25 passes when outside the pocket. He completed only one of those seven, but he said this week that opponents «know that I have that ability, so I’ve just got to be ready when those opportunities come up.» — Kevin Seifert, Vikings reporter
How would you gauge Justin Fields’ grip on the starting job after their bye?
Probably not a strong grip, considering coach Aaron Glenn refuses to publicly confirm that Fields is indeed the starter. Fields, coming off his best game, is expected to start Sunday against the Browns. Beyond that, who knows? Two weeks ago, Glenn was prepared to go with Tyrod Taylor, but he stayed with Fields because Taylor was scratched due to late-week knee discomfort. It makes sense to ride with Fields to get a full-season evaluation before they consider major quarterback decisions in the offseason. — Rich Cimini, Jets reporter
