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David Schoenfield
A few days prior, we explored what can be trusted and what can’t in the National League. It appears that the American League is potentially even more tumultuous.
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox find themselves in a pivotal four-game series at Yankee Stadium — with the concluding game on «Sunday Night Baseball» at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both squads aim to assert themselves and draw nearer to the Toronto Blue Jays at the summit of the division while maintaining their lead in the wild-card standings.
The Blue Jays have been on fire — except they recently dropped a series to the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates. The Houston Astros were recently shut out for three consecutive games (and four out of five), yet they still cling to a fragile lead in the AL West as the Seattle Mariners struggled with a 2-7 record on a recent road trip, suffering a harsh three-game sweep in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers appear to be getting back on course, while the Kansas City Royals are unexpectedly gaining momentum.
Let’s take a look at the current state of overreaction in the AL and draw some conclusions.
Overreaction: Judge! Bellinger! Stanton! The Yankees are back, baby!
Take a breath, tiger. The Yankees won two out of three against Minnesota. They put up 24 runs while sweeping St. Louis and then hit nine home runs in a victory over Tampa Bay.
Aaron Judge is back from the injured list. Cody Bellinger has emerged as one of the most underrated acquisitions from last offseason, approaching his highest home run total since his MVP year of 2019. However, the standout has been Giancarlo Stanton. After missing the first two-plus months of the season due to what was termed a double tennis elbow, as if he had been practicing his backhand slice for the French Open, he has returned healthy. In 46 games since his mid-June return, he boasts a .311/.389/.642 line, generating the highest OPS of his career since his 2017 MVP year, and has been performing so well that the Yankees have utilized him in right field a few games to keep his bat in the lineup (allowing Judge to DH while working on his return to the field), despite Stanton being less agile than the statues in center field.
It has indeed been a positive stretch following losing months in June and July. However, problems still linger. Max Fried, who starts Friday night, is struggling with a 6.80 ERA over his last eight starts. He hasn’t had a quality start since June. The back end of the bullpen is still trying to find its footing, as David Bednar has taken over as the closer from Devin Williams (who blew a save on Wednesday, although the Yankees triumphed in extra innings), but Camilo Doval and Jake Bird, two other deadline acquisitions, haven’t made a significant impact. There is potential for a solid bullpen here, especially if Williams finds his form, but let’s refrain from making that proclamation just yet.
Furthermore, Judge has yet to take the field. Although manager Aaron Boone has positioned Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where the ground to cover is lesser, he has not deployed Stanton in the field on away games, leaving him as a part-timer currently. Ryan McMahon, the team’s other major trade acquisition, is getting on base but has only one home run across 22 games with the Yankees.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. One could argue that if everything aligns for the Yankees, they possess the most potential and deepest roster in the AL: a potential ace in Fried, an expected No. 2 in Carlos Rodon, a possibly overpowering bullpen, the finest hitter in the sport in Judge, and power scattered throughout the lineup. Nonetheless, they haven’t performed well against the elite teams in the AL, including a combined 4-13 record against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and Fried’s ongoing difficulties are alarming. Let’s not crown the Yankees playoff contenders just yet.
Overreaction: The Red Sox must win this series against the Yankees
The most probable outcome in a four-game series between two evenly matched teams is typically a split. That would leave the Red Sox where they began the series, one game behind the Yankees and in third place in the AL East, but possibly in a significantly tighter wild-card picture. However, after winning their first five contests in August, the Red Sox have gone 3-7 in their last 10 entering the Yankees series, adding some urgency to this matchup, even for a late-August Red Sox-Yankees battle.
Most frustratingly, the Red Sox dropped two games in extra innings during that 3-7 stretch and lost both games started by Garrett Crochet. He had one poor outing against the Houston Astros, lasting only four innings in his worst start of the season, and then the bullpen squandered a 3-1 lead to the Miami Marlins as Greg Weissert and Steven Matz allowed ninth-inning home runs while Aroldis Chapman was unavailable for the final inning. Chapman had pitched in the previous games and only thrown 14 pitches across those two outings, so it was a questionable choice by manager Alex Cora (Chapman had participated in three consecutive games earlier in the season).
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A key factor for the Red Sox as the season progresses: How much will Cora rely on his top pitchers? Crochet has already surpassed his innings total from 2024 and hasn’t pitched on four days’ rest since June 18, having experienced rest intervals of seven and nine days during that time. Chapman has had an outstanding season but has pitched only 48 innings in 53 games and seldom makes back-to-back appearances. The Yankees series marks the start of a stretch for Boston of 13 games over 13 days and 19 over 20, thus Cora will need to make some decisions regarding his rotation.
VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Is it critical to rectify matters? Absolutely. Is this a must-win series? No, it’s still too premature to assert that, especially since the Red Sox remain in a strong wild-card position (albeit, catching the Blue Jays remains the ultimate objective). Meanwhile, this eight-game road trip to New York and Baltimore is significant, considering the Red Sox are just 28-34 away from home — and the Orioles have been performing better of late. A poor road trip could spell disaster. Check back next week.
Overreaction: The Blue Jays — not the Tigers — are now the premier team in the AL
The Blue Jays have compiled a 48-26 record since May 28 — the second-best in the majors behind Milwaukee during that span. They boast the highest OPS in the majors since then, with only the Brewers coming close in runs scored (Boston ranks third in runs scored, trailing the Blue Jays by 50 runs since May 28). It hasn’t only been about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. George Springer and Addison Barger have been hitting well, Daulton Varsho has had a significant August, and role players like Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, Ernie Clement, and Tyler Heineman have performed admirably. Toronto has a surprisingly deep batting order.
Additionally, Max Scherzer has suddenly racked up five consecutive quality starts.
Conversely, the Tigers seem to be getting back on track following their July stretch where they lost 11 of 12. They’ve taken four series in a row, although three of those were against the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, and weakened Minnesota Twins, yet they also just completed a sweep against the Astros, defeating Framber Valdez in the series finale Wednesday and pitching shutouts in the other two wins. Charlie Morton has contributed to stabilizing the rotation with three outstanding starts in his four outings with the Tigers, and the bullpen — bolstered by acquisitions from the trade deadline — has shown marked improvement in August after a rough July. Kerry Carpenter has also been hitting well since his return at the end of July.
With Eric Lauer as frontline starters and all the remarkable offensive performances, it might not be far-fetched to claim that the Blue Jays are the team to beat. However, some of those offensive figures are impacted by the absurd series at Coors Field when they scored 45 runs in three games, and when viewing the entire season, the Tigers still hold a superior run differential (as do the Yankees and Red Sox). The Jays’ bandwagon is picking up speed, yet the AL still appears to be a tightly packed group of teams likely to finish around 92-70.
Overreaction: The Astros can’t hit, and the Mariners can’t pitch
Is anyone eager to take the AL West title? It doesn’t seem that way (you can even include the Texas Rangers, who were tied with the Mariners on July 30 but have gone 6-13 since then against a tough August schedule). The Astros are batting a mere .226 in August with a .649 OPS. Carlos Correa has been their most effective hitter, making it tough to critique that trade, yet Jesus Sanchez has posted a .150 average with one RBI for Houston while rookie Cam Smith has hit a rough patch. Welcoming back Yordan Alvarez, who has just started a rehab assignment, could provide a crucial boost if he’s healthy.
Meanwhile, the Mariners have their top five starters healthy for the first time, yet this road trip has revealed a key issue: Their rotation is significantly overrated. The Mariners rank 26th in rotation ERA on the road. Bryan Woo is the only one of those five starters with an ERA below 5.00 away from home. Logan Gilbert boasts a 2.22 ERA at home but a 6.00 ERA on the road. Luis Castillo’s road OPS is close to 300 points higher than his home numbers. They pitch well at T-Mobile Park since it’s a friendly venue for pitchers. The Mariners still face two remaining road trips: a nine-game trek to Cleveland, Tampa, and Atlanta, followed by a six-game journey to Kansas City and Houston.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Both concerns are valid. The Astros’ offense hasn’t been appalling this season, but it rates as average, and Correa is filling in for the injured Isaac Paredes, thus he’s not really an upgrade. Seattle’s rotation difficulties on the road — alongside a lack of depth in the bullpen — could be an even more pressing issue. The season series is currently tied at 5-5. FanGraphs forecasts a close race for the division champion. The teams will clash once again in Houston during the second-to-last weekend of the regular season — and that set may very well determine the AL West champion.
Overreaction: The Royals will reach the playoffs
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With the Red Sox, Astros, and Mariners faltering over the past 10 games, the door has opened for the Royals, who have captured five straight wins and seven of eight to inch closer in the wild-card hunt (Cleveland is in the mix too). Bobby Witt Jr. is excelling in August, Vinnie Pasquantino is launching home runs, and, further highlighting the unpredictability of the trade deadline, Mike Yastrzemski and Adam Frazier, two seemingly minor additions, have been stellar.
The Royals are doing this in the absence of Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, but Noah Cameron continues to perform well, and fellow rookie Ryan Bergert, who joined from the Freddy Fermin trade, has delivered three solid starts. Similar to last year’s team, the Royals are generating a wave of optimism at an opportune moment.
VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. We’ll gain more insight into the Royals with this weekend’s series in Detroit, followed by a rematch next weekend in Kansas City. Otherwise, their schedule appears quite favorable moving forward, including a season-ending road trip to Anaheim and Sacramento against two teams that will be closing out their seasons. The vibes are promising. The Royals will sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card contender.
