Scouts, coaches weigh in on three-man race for No. 1 pick in 2026 NBA draft

As the men’s college basketball season commenced, there was a prevalent consensus among NBA front office evaluators that Darryn Peterson was slightly ahead of AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer for the top choice in the 2026 NBA draft.

Dybantsa was viewed as marginally better than Boozer due to anticipated long-term potential, with Boozer providing a more stable baseline. Peterson, however, showcased the optimal mix of both attributes. Each of these first-year players is considered a genuine No. 1 prospect, yet they happen to be competing within the same recruiting group.

Following a record-breaking start from Boozer and notable displays by Dybantsa—coupled with a hamstring issue that hampered the onset of Peterson’s season and has persisted upon his recovery—the conversation regarding the No. 1 selection remains compelling. Peterson continues to hold the top slot on ESPN’s latest Big Board, followed closely by Dybantsa and Boozer. To gain greater insight into each player’s standing in the competition, ESPN’s Jeremy Woo and Jeff Borzello consulted several NBA scouts and collegiate coaches to construct arguments for and against each being the top pick.

As the depth of the 2026 draft class is substantial enough to affect the lottery, they also inquired about which prospects could solidify the top five slots.

Jump to: Darryn Peterson | AJ Dybantsa | Cameron Boozer | Who should be No. 4?

Reasons Peterson could secure No. 1

The second-ranked prospect in the SC Next 100 upon leaving high school, Peterson commenced the season favored to be the top selection of this draft class. Standing at 6-foot-6, capable of being a primary playmaker and scorer for a team, Peterson’s anticipated high-usage role at Kansas was also expected to lead to substantial contributions in his freshman year.

Peterson tallied 26 points on 9-for-15 shooting (mostly in one half) during the Jayhawks’ exhibition game against Louisville, solidifying his front-runner status for the No. 1 pick from the start. He further validated this with 21 points in the regular-season opener against Green Bay and 22 points against North Carolina.

«He possesses the most comprehensive offensive arsenal of anyone in college,» commented one college coach who scouted Kansas. «When you factor in his shooting variety, the potential for deep 3-point shots, and his capacity to manage the ball, I find him reminiscent of some of the exceptional young talents from recent years, spanning the last 15-20 years.»

However, his high-level performance against the Tar Heels was the last sighting of Peterson for a full month, as a lingering hamstring injury sidelined him for seven contests. There was considerable ambiguity surrounding his injury, given he consistently appeared as a game-day decision before being ruled out in the hours leading to tipoff.

He made his return against Missouri on Dec. 7, recording 17 points in just 23 minutes. Although he departed early from Saturday’s overtime victory against NC State due to quad cramping, he still managed to finish with 17 points.

«I found him rather impressive [against Missouri],» shared an Eastern Conference scout with ESPN. «I believe he made an effort to integrate himself without being disruptive. Perhaps [he] ought to have been even more assertive.

«For me, he remains No. 1, and I can’t conceive of a scenario where [the others] surpass that. He’s so composed and steady and consistently effective. Even Darryn’s challenging nights are remarkably productive in my view.»

While he is not yet universally acknowledged as a true point guard, Peterson has made strides in his distribution and capability to direct an offense. His potential to handle a high-usage role at the NBA level gives him a perceived edge over Dybantsa and Boozer according to various insiders.

«He exemplifies what a point guard is evolving into in the NBA,» noted another Eastern Conference scout. «Can you create advantages? Can you be a playmaker? Can you score when defenses break down? Darryn can excel at all of those aspects.»

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Reasons Peterson might not secure No. 1

One of the primary questions is whether Peterson can fully transition to being a point guard or if he will require an additional ball handler or scorer on the court with him.

«I do not view him as a complete point guard just yet,» expressed a college coach who evaluated Kansas. «To me, he lacks that elite ball-handling ability and passing seen in some of the top-tier guards in the NBA. Thus, I believe that area needs continuous development.

«He needs to demonstrate ongoing progress as a playmaker, becoming more comfortable as a passer and someone who can effectively play at both ends. How will he adjust when faced with more aggressive defenses, especially when teams pressure his ball handling?»

Regarding the hamstring ailment that sidelined Peterson for a month, several NBA scouts recognized it would be discussed during the draft process. Nonetheless, it appears unlikely to significantly deter his prospects for the No. 1 selection.

«That would never have dissuaded anyone from taking him,» one scout remarked. «You simply need to consult your medical team, and if they believe it’s manageable, you proceed. Every team has its medical staff. As long as it’s not a debilitating injury, he’s still likely to be a top-two pick.»

Reasons Dybantsa could secure No. 1

Dybantsa was considered one of the top high school basketball prospects early in his journey, competing at multiple age levels on the Nike circuit before reclassifying from the 2026 class to the 2025 class in 2023. The Brockton, Massachusetts native concluded his senior year as the top prospect in the SC Next 100.

In the first nine games of BYU’s season, Dybantsa is averaging 20.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 55.5% from the field and 34.8% from beyond the arc. Though he hasn’t consistently matched Boozer’s gaudy stats, Dybantsa’s second-half performances against UConn and Clemson have been among the finest this season.

«He possesses a highly developed offensive scoring repertoire, indicative of how an NBA wing player appears in college,» stated one coach who faced Dybantsa this season. «At high school and FIBA levels, he occasionally acted as a ball stopper. However, he has allowed the offense to work around him, picking his moments to become aggressive.

«It’s his knack for making difficult shots and his size at that position, which is highly valued in the NBA. Those larger wings who can create plays, exert pressure on the rim, and connect on tough shots are invaluable. He’s talented enough to evolve into a solid defender. He plays with intensity.»

Dybantsa’s remarkable physical attributes on both ends of the court, along with his size (6-9) and ability to score at all three levels, render him an enticing choice for the top of the draft.

«I would still have AJ at No. 1,» a Western Conference scout commented to ESPN. «The positional versatility and size are exceptionally unique. His ability to create off the dribble and be dynamic from the mid-post, complete with those fadeaway jumpers, showcases his style of play. I believe he can deliver crisp passes with one hand and navigate well mid-air… He employs long strides on defense, making him someone adaptable to various lineups across different positions.»

Dybantsa enjoyed the finest game of his collegiate career at the Jimmy V Classic against Clemson on Dec. 9, scoring 22 of his 28 points, alongside 7 of his 9 rebounds and 5 of his 6 assists in the second half to fuel a comeback after falling 22 points behind. This performance served as a prominent reminder of Dybantsa’s true potential for NBA decision-makers, many of whom were present at Madison Square Garden.

«Can he maintain that level of play throughout an entire game so the team isn’t reliant on second-half comebacks? It was a perfect reflection of AJ,» one Eastern Conference scout remarked to ESPN post-game. «If he can demonstrate consistency, he’s the best player.

«All these individuals have the potential to be franchise-changers, but AJ has consistently shown the highest ceiling as a scorer, playmaker, and defender. He possesses the ability to make significant impacts in games due to his size. While Darryn can achieve many of those things as well, AJ is a 6-foot-9, three-level scorer. He is a scorer, not merely a shooter. His shot may vary, but the peaks we have seen from AJ are exceptionally high.»

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Reasons Dybantsa might not secure No. 1

While Dybantsa has showcased the best mid-range game in the class, concerns linger regarding the consistency of his perimeter shooting. His 3-point shooting percentage stands at a commendable 34.8%, yet he averages less than one made 3-pointer per game and has only made 23 attempts through 10 games.

«His success as a player could be somewhat limited unless he evolves into an exceptional 3-point shooter,» observed an opposing college coach. «He is talented enough to find ways to score points even if he remains an average 3-point shooter. I believe he will be diligent enough to ensure it doesn’t turn into a significant weakness, but I’m uncertain if it will emerge as a major strength either. Historically, he’s needed a rhythmic dribble to shoot from the perimeter, thus catch-and-shoot opportunities need enhancement as he transitions to the professional level.»

Dybantsa’s dimensions and skills align with those seen in recent NBA wing stars, yet questions persist about his adaptability if the offensive system isn’t designed around him. Additionally, doubts about his occasional ball-stopping and defensive inconsistency remain.

«For me, it’s clearer to see how he might falter compared to the other two,» stated another Eastern Conference scout. «I believe the other prospects can participate in the NBA now and still generate moderate productivity, while AJ might present as more of an acquired taste at times.»

Reasons Boozer could secure No. 1

Boozer stepped onto the college stage as one of the most decorated basketball talents in recent memory, having secured four state championships at high school, two gold medals with USA Basketball (earning MVP honors during both), and three Peach Jam titles in the summer circuit. As the son of former NBA player Carlos Boozer, he has consistently excelled at each stage of his career.

This has translated into his college performance, positioning Boozer as the frontrunner for the National Player of the Year through the initial month of the season. The 6-foot-9 forward is producing 23.0 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.7 steals alongside blocks across the first 10 games, with shooting splits of 56% from the field and 37% from 3.

«It feels as though some are undervaluing Cam because of his inability to catch lobs, but he possesses numerous additional skills,» remarked one Eastern Conference scout to ESPN. «Extremely refined and intelligent, I find it hard to identify where he cannot be utilized… I believe he will lose some weight, and perhaps there’s a chance for an increase in his explosiveness. He is switchable to an extent, showing above-average lateral movement.

«I’ve been very impressed with him, and ultimately, one must acknowledge how difficult winning is; it’s a skill, and he seems to win whenever he competes. He is ready to step up when necessary and make impactful plays.»

Despite being viewed as a less certain prospect compared to Peterson and Dybantsa due to a perceived lack of explosiveness, Boozer’s performance against high-caliber competitors possessing NBA-size has been consistently impressive, recording 35 points against Arkansas, 29 against Florida, and attaining double-doubles against Kansas and Texas.

«He has the potential to improve as a shooter and his shooting mechanics are already solid,» stated one coach who faced Duke this season. «Could he be the top player in this class? I’m not sure, but he will inevitably assist a team in winning and is poised to average 20 points and 10 rebounds over his career.»

Although it may not directly impact Boozer’s draft status, it is worth noting that Duke boasts a perfect 10-0 record this season with the top Quad 1 performance nationwide. Delivering consistent results bolsters Boozer’s reputation.

«I consider him the best player in college basketball this year; he deserves to win the Wooden Award and the Naismith Award as the most dominant player this season,» remarked one college coach. «From an NBA perspective, while he might be slightly less projectable than the other two, he’s still not far behind.»

«Ultimately, being the most successful player at every level should have rewards,» added another scout from the Eastern Conference.

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Reasons Boozer might not secure No. 1

At the season’s outset, the contest for the top pick appeared more like a duel between Peterson and Dybantsa than a three-way race. Boozer’s remarkable start has thrust him into the conversation, but the disparity in physical attributes among him and the two perimeter players remains a point of discussion.

«Can you give him the ball and trust he’ll generate a score or create a play in the game’s crucial moments? Is he capable of that at the NBA level?» asked an Eastern Conference scout. «This isn’t a criticism of Cam—it’s just that the other two have the potential to be the leading player on NBA championship squads.»

While Boozer’s overall stats have been noteworthy, there have been prolonged phases in challenging games where he has faced significant difficulties—most notably at the beginning of contests. He recorded zero points on seven shots in the initial half of the season opener against Texas; posted 7 points on 2-for-6 shooting before halftime against Kansas; and had merely 2 points in the opening half against Michigan State. It speaks volumes that he rebounded to excel in the second half of each of these games, but his struggles against larger opponents might be a factor in the evaluation process for the No. 1 pick.

«I am aware that many have raised this issue, but the concerns about finishing at the rim are valid,» stated another college coach who evaluated Duke. «He has consistently struggled as a below-the-rim finisher in traffic. … Although he always finds ways to be productive, considering his size and relative athleticism around the rim, I have no doubt he will become a very good player; nonetheless, I see others having greater potential ceilings.»

Who fills the top five?

This draft class, anticipated to be elite, has ample depth at the top, making the race for a top-five selection as intriguing as the fight for No. 1.

Two freshmen have solidified their status as strong candidates to help fill out the top five: Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr. and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson.

Brown, at 6-foot-5 and playing point guard, has steadily raised his stock over the last several years, particularly following his standout performance at last summer’s FIBA U19 Men’s World Cup in Switzerland, where he was arguably the event’s best player and claimed his second gold medal. Two Eastern Conference scouts we consulted indicated that Brown could be on the radar at No. 3, depending on how the season unfolds and the lottery pans out.

«Mikel Brown outperformed AJ Dybantsa [as teammates] at the U19s,» mentioned one of the scouts. «He exemplifies a true point guard. This doesn’t imply he should automatically rank above AJ, but he embodies the prototypical traits of a floor general.

«If we reach [No. 3] and it’s a team in need of that leadership, I believe he will be in contention at that juncture.»

Brown has emerged as one of the leading freshman guards nationally this season, averaging 16.7 points and 5.3 assists, showcased by a 29-point outing against Kentucky and 22 points in games against Darius Acuff Jr. and Arkansas.

«We’ll see how he develops in a month, but I was highly impressed with him at Arkansas,» added another Eastern Conference scout. «His size is remarkable, he has grown both physically and mentally, he gets quality shots, and he can carry [Louisville] through secondary and tertiary actions rather than just relying on off-balance shots.

«A guard of that stature who can effectively maneuver to create good looks at the rim while executing pick-and-roll plays makes him intriguing.»

Conversely, Wilson stands out as arguably the most productive player from a high-major program aside from Boozer. The 6-foot-10 forward from Atlanta averages 19.4 points and 10.6 rebounds.

«He continues to exhibit aggression, demonstrating his capacity to attack lanes, efficiently cut from the baseline, score off the dribble, and shoot from long-range while energetically contributing on defense,» expressed a Western Conference scout. «He possesses physical dimensions and skills similar to those of AJ.»

Wilson has compiled several impressive performances in crucial matchups: tallying 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists during a victory over Kansas; achieving 15 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists in a road win at Kentucky; and contributing 18 points and 7 rebounds versus Michigan State.

«Caleb might be the fourth player selected,» suggested one college coach who evaluated North Carolina. «He appears to have elevated his game at Carolina. Playing the 4 position has been beneficial for him, as he can leverage his speed and athleticism. His commitment is evident; he is playing with great intensity.»

«He possesses a broader spectrum of potential outcomes,» another Eastern Conference scout concluded. «But he has a chance to break into the top three.»