Should you expect LeBron’s numbers to improve after slow start?

This isn’t the LeBron James we’ve come to know over the past two-plus decades. After missing the first month of the season dealing with sciatica, James returned in mid-November, but through his first seven games his numbers are way down across the board.

So what can we expect from LeBron for the rest of this season?

Just last season, he made All NBA Second Team while averaging more than 40 combined points, rebounds and assists per game for the ninth straight season (post 2015-16). Fast-forward to this season and during the month that LeBron missed, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves both broke out to amazing starts built on shared high-usage opportunities. With Doncic and Reaves combining to average more than 63 points and almost 16 assists, there’s no way LeBron could get anywhere near his normal usage this season upon his return. Something had to give.

And it has … in the best possible way for the long-term playoffs aspirations for the Lakers. LeBron has willingly taken two steps back, playing off the ball and using his on-ball possessions more often to set up teammates than himself. And, in so doing, he has fit into the team dynamic instead of having it fit around him — as has been the case his whole career. LeBron embracing the third option role allows Doncic and Reaves to continue to carry the oversized offensive role for the Lakers.

Doncic is leading the NBA in usage percentage (38.1%) and scoring average (35.0 PPG) while still averaging 9.1 APG. Of Doncic’s made shots, only 17.1% of the 2-pointers and 36.1% of the 3-pointers are assisted. This means that the vast majority of Doncic’s shots are coming off the dribble, with him working off isolation.

Reaves is averaging 28.4 PPG and 6.7 APG, numbers that would typically be first-option production on most teams. And he’s also doing a lot of creating off the dribble, with only 30.4% of his made 2-pointers and 63.2% of his made 3-pointers coming from assists.

LeBron’s averages from his first seven seasons with the Lakers at the offensive end of the court strongly resemble Reaves’ from this season: 26.6 PPG, 8.1 APG, 36.3% of his made 2-pointers and 56.5% of made 3-pointers coming from assists. But through seven games this season, LeBron’s numbers have dipped to 16.1 PPG and 7.6 APG, with 50.0% of 2s and 90.9% of 3s assisted.

Will this continue?

Over the next 50-ish games of the regular season, will LeBron continue to defer and will his, Doncic’s and Reaves’ numbers remain consistent?

On average, and assuming reasonable health, I say yes. I think LeBron will continue to play this way and that the Lakers will continue to embrace their current roles until they reach the playoffs.

Why?

For one, because it’s working. The Lakers have the second-best record in the Western Conference and are already positioning themselves for home court advantage for the first couple rounds of the playoffs. Which dovetails into the second reason: at this point in his career, LeBron is really all about championship opportunities. And with Luka playing at MVP level and Reaves playing at All NBA level, LeBron suddenly finds himself with one of the best supporting casts he’s ever had. Any other time he has had teammates playing at that level, he has won championships.

Despite what LeBron’s commercials say, Father Time really is undefeated. LeBron turns 41 years old in December. He is battling sciatica, an ailment that is more typical in the mature crowd than among young athletes. And while LeBron showed last season he could still play at even MVP level for long stretches, he eventually wore down as the season progressed and was never fully himself in the playoffs. If Doncic and Reaves can do the heavy lifting on a nightly basis over the course of the NBA marathon, LeBron will be more likely to have gas in the tank once the playoffs arrive. And again, playing at championship level in May and June is LeBron’s main focus this season.

Plus, LeBron is largely doing whatever it takes for the Lakers to succeed. Sometimes that means doing what he did last Thursday, scoring only eight points and consciously giving up his streak of 1,297(!) consecutive games scoring double figures to dish the game-winning assist, one of his 11 assists on the night. Other times, the Lakers need LeBron to flash his scoring prowess and step up, the way he did on Sunday with 29 points, including 10 straight with less than five minutes left in the fourth.

Managing the injury

We also need to acknowledge that even though LeBron returned from injury in the middle of November, he still has to manage the issue and may have to all season. LeBron has played in seven of nine Lakers games since his return. He has sat out one half of both back-to-backs in that stretch, and that could be something he continues to do for the season.

And LeBron’s potential absences are crucial, not so much for Doncic, but definitely for Reaves. Because even with LeBron playing the third fiddle to let Reaves cook, it’s inevitable that he will cut at least a bit into Reaves’ usage when all three are playing. But when LeBron (or Doncic) sit, Reaves is free to run amuck.

In the nine games since LeBron returned, Reaves has averaged 28.6 PPG … almost exactly the same as his 28.4 PPG average on the season. But all three stars only played in six of the nine games. In those six games, Reaves has averaged 23.2 PPG. In the other three games, Reaves averaged 37.7 PPG. And it didn’t matter what combo of LeBron or Luka were out; in one game Reaves played with LeBron, in one with Luka, and in one both sat … Reaves exploded in each of them.

By the way, in the game Luka played when LeBron sat, Luka still scored 34 points. It’s only one game, but it fits the pattern that Luka is option 1, period. The ball goes through him, no matter who he’s out there with. So his numbers shouldn’t be affected much if LeBron is on the court. Reaves, on the other hand, will be a bit attenuated if all three play, but can make up the slack in the games when either/both of his star teammates sit.

Fantasy and betting bottom line

While LeBron playing the third fiddle is probably good for both the Lakers and his playoff aspirations, it isn’t good for his fantasy numbers.

• LeBron was a top-10 fantasy producer last season, but as a third option he projects to more of a top-50 to top-75 player moving forward, depending on scoring system and format.

• His presence doesn’t materially change Luka’s fantasy output, but Reaves goes from top-10 fantasy prospect without LeBron to more like top-40 when he plays.

• But for season-long fantasy, daily fantasy and betting purposes, you should have a red alert on Reaves if either LeBron or Luka (or both) sit any given night. On those days, Reaves projects as the potentially the leading scorer in the NBA, a sure-fire DFS starter and the ‘over’ in pretty much any scoring prop.