T20 World Cup: Predictions for the tournament from Test Match Special team

The 2026 World Cup is almost upon us.

India are defending champions after their 2024 win and have home advantage as co-hosts alongside Sri Lanka.

Can anyone stop them? And who will be the best batters and bowlers?

Here are the Test Match Special team’s predictions before it all gets under way on Saturday, 7 February.

Former England bowler Steven Finn: It is hard to look beyond India, but the romance of South Africa winning after how close they got to winning by reaching the 2024 final is something I would like to see.

I do actually think England are dark horses to win the tournament given how well they played in Sri Lanka and the options they have.

Former England bowler Alex Hartley: No team has ever won a men’s T20 World Cup on home soil, so I’m going India.

Former England bowler Tymal Mills: India will be tough to beat in their own conditions. Obviously all their players are well-accustomed to playing on those decks, so I’ll go with India.

England and Scotland bowler Kirstie Gordon: It is probably a popular answer but it is hard to look past India in their own conditions. They look incredibly strong and well balanced. I would love to see South Africa give them a scare.

As for Scotland, it is hard to say given their lack of preparation time, but they have some excellent players and will be keen to show they deserve to be there.

I think they will beat Italy and Nepal but West Indies and England’s firepower could be too big a hurdle.

BBC cricket reporter Henry Moeran: India will be hard to beat at home, and having won the last two global white-ball events will be full of confidence.

But as we saw in the final of 2023, home pressure can sometimes be a hindrance and so many top players from around the world having Indian Premier League experience means knowledge of conditions perhaps will not be as significant.

South Africa could be a threat having broken their hoodoo with the Test Championship win.

TMS commentator Prakash Wakankar: While India will be among the favourites, the pressure will be immense.

I would never write off Australia, and South Africa are really well placed with the variety in their bowling and depth in their batting.

If pressed, I would go for a repeat of the 2023 50-over final between India and Australia, but hopefully with a different result…

TMS commentator Daniel Norcross: India. It is the obvious choice but that is because India come into this World Cup in formidable form and have home advantage.

In addition, if their match with Pakistan does not go ahead, they will not only pick up two points without playing a game but will also not have to leave India.

TMS commentator Aatif Nawaz: Though both England and Pakistan are heading into the World Cup with strong form, getting the better of India will be a Herculean task.

BBC cricket writer Matthew Henry: I was all set to try and be clever. Like before the 2023 50-over World Cup in India, Australia have lost their past two series.

At that World Cup, Australia were without Travis Head for the start. This time Josh Hazlewood was set to miss the opening weeks but now he has been ruled out entirely, they surely have little chance.

India it is.

Finn: England’s Phil Salt. He has been outstanding in both the IPL and T20 internationals recently. Opening is the best place to bat in India and expect the top run-scorer to bat in the top two.

Hartley: Australia’s Ashes hero Travis Head. He’s become more consistent over the last 18 months and also plays with complete freedom. He does not care about getting out which will help him push the boundaries.

Mills: I’ll go with South Africa captain Aiden Markram. He’s in good form at the moment and he does well in India too.

Gordon: India’s Abhishek Sharma. He’s got a ridiculous strike-rate and has provided so much firepower at the top of the order for India recently. First World Cup. Home conditions. Are the stars aligned?

Moeran: It might be his debut tournament, but Abhishek is a brilliant player and I think he will do some serious damage to bowling attacks.

Norcross: Abhishek. The Indian opener is in frighteningly good form and will have plenty of opportunity to go big on friendly, run-drenched pitches at home in India.

Nawaz: Abhishek is the smart bet. He will open for India and doubtless hit sixes for fun. He stands head (sorry Travis!) and shoulders above everyone else in T20 cricket right now.

Wakankar: Head is my pick. He is just so dominant in this format. His hand-eye co-ordination is of a different level. He has been top of the pops for Sunrisers Hyderabad consistently in the IPL and knows the conditions really well.

Henry: India captain Suryakumar Yadav scored 242 runs at 80.66 during the recent series win over New Zealand. One thing that could stop him may be the form of others in India’s top order denying him enough time at the crease.

Hartley: Sherfane Rutherford. He had a great SA20 campaign with 334 runs and a strike-rate of 165. Nothing beats watching a West Indian when they get going.

Mills: South Africa’s Dewald Brevis, who I played with recently at the SA20.

Obviously people know about him, but he probably hasn’t really exploded in terms of international cricket just yet. He played some special innings for us.

Finn: So much has been talked about Brevis from a young age and it finally feels like he has come of age. A fantastic SA20 – 370 runs and a strike-rate of 156.11 – should give him confidence.

Gordon: I’m going to go for New Zealand’s Finn Allen. He’s off the back of a great Big Bash campaign for Perth Scorchers, where he was the leading run-scorer with 466 in 11 innings. It seems like his batting has really matured in the last couple of years.

Norcross: Allen is hit and miss, but if he gets going those small grounds in India won’t be able to contain his monstrously destructive hitting.

Moeran: Tom Banton of England looked in excellent touch with an unbeaten 54* in the second T20 in Sri Lanka and feels a very different player to his first iteration in the England side back in 2019 and 2020.

Henry: Brevis is a good shout. England have seen what Pathum Nissanka, now sixth in the world T20 rankings, can do in recent weeks.

Nawaz: Let’s go for someone a little less obvious. Wayne Madsen. Obviously Italy are unlikely to go past the group stage but the 42 year old’s storied career feels like it has one more fairytale chapter in it…

Finn: Kuldeep Yadav. He could clean up in the group stage, looking at India’s opponents, and wrist spin is always a potent wicket threat as the tournament wears on.

Mills: It is hard to look past Jasprit Bumrah, an outstanding bowler across all formats but particularly within T20 and he’ll obviously play a huge part in India’s claim to winning the title.

Gordon: Australia’s Nathan Ellis. A highly skilled T20 bowler who can bowl in all phases but is especially strong at the death.

He often goes under the radar in a top-quality attack but regularly bowls some of the toughest overs.

Moeran: How can we look past Bumrah? He won India the tournament two years ago in the final against South Africa and will again be key. Few bowlers can do what he does, and his overs at the death will be integral.

Hartley: I do not like copying my friends but, as they have said, how do you look past Bumrah? I want to pick a spinner and I want that man to be Varun Chakaravarthy but I’m not sure he will play all the games.

Nawaz: I’m certain it will be a spinner. There are so many to chose from, but I’ll go with Adam Zampa. He was one of Australia’s few positives in their 3-0 hammering at the hands of Pakistan.

Wakankar: I expect Hardik Pandya to be that person, fitness being the only challenge. He is the key cog in the India team for sure as their main seam-bowling all-rounder.

Norcross: Abrar Ahmed. A left-field pick maybe but hear me out.

Pakistan will play all their matches in Sri Lanka where the pitches have shown strong signs of favouring spin.

The bespectacled leg-spinner recently had the Australians in a pickle and has a great chance to bag a hatful of wickets in the opening group stage against weaker teams.

Henry: The leading wicket-takers in the past three editions of the IPL have all been seamers. Always improving, always moving the new ball, I’ll go with South Africa’s Marco Jansen.

Hartley: Pakistan’s Usman Tariq – not for the amount of wickets he will or won’t get but the hype around his controversial bowling action.

Finn: Tariq was relatively unknown until recently. Mystery spinners who burst on to the scene usually have a good first tournament, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do well.

Gordon: Azmatullah Omarzai. I could have picked one of a few bowlers from Afghanistan, who I think could cause an upset in the group of death which also includes South Africa and New Zealand.

A spinner might have been the common choice but Omarzai has been central to them becoming a more balanced team.

Mills: Maybe someone like Noor Ahmad from Afghanistan, the left-arm wrist spinner. Obviously all eyes will be on Rashid Khan but Noor is an excellent bowler in his own right as well.

Moeran: South Africa quick Anrich Nortje is in fine form, taking a stack of wickets in the SA20 for Sunrisers Eastern Cape as they won the tournament. He knows the conditions, knows his game and can bowl economical and rapid spells.

Wakankar: I have a nagging suspicion it could be someone like Chakravarthy, given the Indian conditions.

He is deceptive and has a way of picking up wickets. His mystery element still seems to get batters in the key middle part of the innings.

Nawaz: Saim Ayub from Pakistan. He has established himself as a genuine all-rounder over the past 12 months and been very effective in the powerplay.

I know it is a big call to go with an opening batter as bowler to watch – but that’s how good he’s been.

Norcross: Keshav Maharaj. The South African slow left-armer is in the form of his life.

A complete master of his craft, he will be desperate to go one better after South Africa’s loss in the final last time around.