The field for the 2025 NFL season’s playoffs is set after the Steelers beat the Ravens in a season-ending classic. The No. 1 seeds in each conference — the Broncos in the AFC and Seahawks in the NFC — will receive first-round byes. The remaining 12 teams will face each other during wild-card weekend, starting Saturday and running through Jan. 12. Two games will be played Saturday and three Sunday, with the wild-card slate concluding with a «Monday Night Football» game on ESPN and ABC.
Which teams seem to be peaking in time for a deep playoff run? Which teams are limping into the postseason with concerns about how long they could last? And which players might put their respective teams over the top on the march to Super Bowl LX?
Here’s what each of the 14 playoff teams need to do to reach the Super Bowl, which will be played Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Our NFL Nation team reporters picked out strengths and weaknesses for each team, and analytics writer Seth Walder identified a key stat to know for each club. Then, Ben Solak gave his heat check rating (from 1 to 10) for each playoff squad. We will also size up all 14 teams’ updated chances to win it all with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFC:
1. Seahawks
2. Bears vs. 7. Packers
3. Eagles vs. 6. 49ers
4. Panthers vs. 5. Rams
AFC:
1. Broncos
2. Patriots vs. 7. Chargers
3. Jaguars vs. 6. Bills
4. Steelers vs. 5. Texans
NFC
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +350
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 30.5%
Reason for hope: The defense is championship caliber. Mike Macdonald’s unit is allowing the second-fewest points in the NFL this season and has held nine of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 20. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per carry and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 26 straight games despite facing a recent gauntlet of tailbacks that includes Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams (twice) and Christian McCaffrey (also twice).
Sam Darnold leads all players with 20 giveaways (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost). The Seahawks also tend to start slowly on offense. Though they’ve overcome those issues against lesser teams, it will be harder to do in the playoffs. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Seahawks’ rushing defense allowed minus-30 first downs over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of a handoff and describes the suffocating nature of Seattle’s run defense. To put that number in context: The next-best team in the category is Houston, at minus-15. — Walder
Heat check rating: 9. Beating a divisional rival on the road to secure the 1-seed is a tone-setting victory, especially considering the narratives around Darnold’s performances in clutch games. It’s a wide-open NFC playoff field, but it runs through Seattle. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Seahawks will host the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round on either Jan. 17 or Jan. 18. That would either be the No. 4-seeded Panthers, the No. 5 Rams, No. 6 49ers or No. 7 Packers. Seattle split its season series with the Rams and 49ers, defeated the Panthers 27-10 in Week 17 and did not play the Packers this season. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 22-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 7.6%
Reason for hope: Led by quarterback Caleb Williams, the Bears’ offense has proved it can go toe-to-toe with anybody. The shootout Chicago narrowly lost in Week 17 against San Francisco showed this high-powered offense can contend in January. Chicago’s six wins after trailing in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter are the most by any team in a season since the 1970 merger. The Bears are well-equipped to pull off comeback wins when the stakes are at their highest, and the offense is playing the best it has all season, heading into the playoffs.
Reason for concern: The opposite can be said of a Bears defense that has surrendered 1,313 yards since Week 16. Chicago ranked 31st in pass rush win rate entering Week 18, which led to only four sacks in its final three games. The Bears are built on takeaways, with a league-high 33 (led by an NFL-high 23 interceptions), but the defense is overmatched when it’s not forcing turnovers. Playing bend-don’t-break football in the postseason is a dangerous proposition. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, the Bears ranked first in pass block win rate (74.1%). That kind of pass protection has paid huge dividends for Williams and allowed the Bears to have the longest average time to throw (3.31 seconds) in the NFL. It’s also part of the reason Williams has had a massively improved sack rate (3.9% entering Week 18, fourth best) this season, though a large portion of the credit for that ought to also go to Williams, given how much quarterbacks control their sack rates. — Walder
Heat check rating: 7. Chicago is healthier on defense than it has been for much of the season, and though the Bears have lost a couple of games to NFC playoff teams, their spectacular late-game wins keep hope alive until the clock reaches triple zeros. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Bears will host the seventh-seeded Packers on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). Chicago and Green Bay split their two regular-season meetings, with the Bears’ 22-16 overtime victory in Week 16 giving them the necessary cushion for an NFC North title. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 10-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 14.9%
Reason for hope: A dominant defense. Vic Fangio’s group is emitting 2024 vibes, when the Eagles rode the NFL’s No. 1 defense to a Super Bowl title. They are sound at all three levels and orchestrated by Fangio, whose 40-plus years of experience have helped him become an exceptional in-game adjuster. The Eagles rank fifth in opponent scoring (19.1 PPG) and seventh in passing defense (189.8 YPG) despite facing several top quarterbacks, including Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
Reason for concern: An inconsistent offense. The offensive line has regressed, and the playcalling has been spotty — two contributing factors in the decline of a once-exceptional running game led by Saquon Barkley. The lack of success on the ground has created tougher sledding for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has had standout moments but also stretches of unproductive play. The output has not matched the talent for much of the season. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, the Eagles ranked second in EPA allowed per dropback, despite ranking only 21st in pass rush win rate. It’s a testament to how good their secondary has been, with cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean leading the way. Mitchell allowed 0.7 yards per coverage snap entering Week 18, seventh best among outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps, and minus-13 EPA allowed when targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Heat check rating: 4. The last time we saw Hurts and the starters, the offense couldn’t complete a second-half pass in a near-disastrous collapse against the Bills. The defense is good, but is it good enough to endure these offensive valleys through January? — Solak
First-game outlook: The Eagles will host the sixth-seeded 49ers in the wild-card round on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). The teams haven’t met since Week 13 of the 2023 season, a 42-19 San Francisco win in Philadelphia that helped send the teams in opposite directions that season. — ESPN
Bryce Young. Despite his inconsistencies, Young has shown he has enough to keep the Panthers in games even when he’s not playing his best. Yes, he has good offensive talent around him, and an improved defense has played a role. But when Young plays well and doesn’t commit turnovers, Carolina can play with anybody, as shown in wins against the Rams and Packers.
Reason for concern: General inconsistency. Carolina has won every other week since mid-October, other than back-to-back losses in Weeks 17-18. But the inconsistency by the team, particularly Young, must be concerning entering the playoffs. Young had a career-low 54 passing yards in Week 17 and a franchise-record 448 yards in mid-November against Atlanta. He followed the Atlanta game with a season-low 13.7 Total QBR against the 49ers. It has been an up-and-down cycle that won’t get you far in the playoffs. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Panthers have a minus-8% pass rate over expectation, second lowest in the NFL. Their extreme run tendency made sense earlier in the season, considering they were much more efficient on the ground as the passing attack was struggling. But from Week 11 on, the passing game has been much better, though Carolina maintained high run rates relative to expectation. The question moving forward: Which Young will show up, and will the Panthers be willing to rely on him more? — Walder
Heat check rating: 3. Never a good feeling to back into the playoffs — but because this is the Panthers’ first divisional title since 2015, one can only lament the circumstances so much. The Panthers will get to play the «nobody believes in us» card and face a Rams team they’ve already beaten in Charlotte once before. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Panthers will host the Rams in the wild-card round on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Carolina upset the Rams 31-28 when the teams played in Week 13 and is 1-0 against them in the playoffs, beating the then-St. Louis Rams in double overtime of the 2003 NFC divisional round. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +425
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 24.3%
Reason for hope: Quarterback Matthew Stafford has played at an MVP level for most of the season. The Rams’ offense has been more consistent this season, led by Stafford. Los Angeles has scored at least 30 points in 10 games. Stafford has 4,707 passing yards and an NFL-leading 46 touchdowns, and he looks poised to lead the Rams on a deep playoff run.
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Reason for concern: Special teams. The unit has been a factor in three of the Rams’ five losses, including the defeat to the Seahawks in Week 16 that ultimately knocked Los Angeles off track to win the NFC West. The miscues in that loss led to Sean McVay firing special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn. After making that move, McVay said he did it because of his confidence in the team and «where I think we can head.» The Rams are certainly capable of winning a Super Bowl, but special teams might be their weakest link. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, the Rams ranked in the top three in rates of play-action (35%), designed rollouts (12%), motion at the snap (48%) and max protection (14%). Those are all valuable levers for McVay to pull, which help with pass protection or overall passing efficiency — or both. No doubt Stafford and wide receiver Puka Nacua have had unbelievable seasons. But those schematic tools are contributing factors to the Rams’ success, too. — Walder
Heat check rating: 5. The Rams went 2-3 in their last five meaningful games, and the defense showed more gaps in December than it did previously. Hopefully, the return of wide receiver Davante Adams and nickel Quentin Lake brings the team back to its dominant ways … but there’s reasonable concern in Los Angeles entering the Rams’ path to the Super Bowl. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Rams will play at the fourth-seeded Panthers in the wild-card round on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Los Angeles is looking for its first road playoff victory since beating the Buccaneers in the 2021 NFC divisional round en route to a Super Bowl LVI championship. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 28-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 10%
Reason for hope: No offense is playing better than the 49ers’ offense. Since quarterback Brock Purdy returned from a right big toe injury in Week 11, San Francisco is averaging 30.0 points per game (fourth in the NFL), with Purdy playing some of the best football of an already successful career. The Niners have huge injury questions, with tight end George Kittle nursing an ankle sprain and left tackle Trent Williams missing Saturday’s game because of a hamstring injury. Kittle played in Week 18, but if Williams can return in the playoffs, this group can keep up in a track meet against anyone, with Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey leading the charge.
Reason for concern: For as well as the offense is playing, the defense is struggling just as much. Among defenses on postseason teams, the 49ers are one of the three worst in points allowed per game (25.5), defensive expected points added (minus-26.7), yards per play allowed (6.0) and takeaways (two) since Week 14. The Niners have fielded the NFL’s least productive pass rush this season and haven’t shown signs of improvement in that category. The path to playoff success will lean heavily on the offense scoring a lot of points while the defense comes up with timely stops and a takeaway or two. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: Purdy has a 73.6 QBR, which would rank second if he played enough to qualify. Having played only nine games, Purdy is understandably not a part of the postseason awards discussion. But he and the San Francisco offense have been hot when he’s on the field. Incredibly, Purdy has done it with a high turnover rate (3.7%). But he doesn’t take sacks (3.5% sack rate) and has incredible accuracy (plus-5.1% completion percentage over expectation, second best among QBs with at least 100 pass attempts), which have made up for the turnovers. — Walder
Heat check rating: 6. Though the offense’s failure to score a touchdown against the Seahawks is surprising, the 49ers should feel great about their ability to score points — and hey, holding Seattle’s offense to 13 points was a positive sign for the defense. Vibes must still be generally good, even after the loss. — Solak
First-game outlook: The 49ers will play at the third-seeded Eagles in the wild-card round on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). San Francisco has split two previous playoff matchups with the Eagles, the most recent a 31-7 loss to Philadelphia in the 2022 NFC Championship Game. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 22-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 11.3%
Reason for hope: The Packers have gotten elite-level quarterback play — from Jordan Love and Malik Willis — most of the season. Love was as high as third in some MVP odds late in the season, and his numbers were better than Sam Darnold’s, the third of the three NFC Pro Bowl quarterbacks, before Love’s Week 16 concussion against the Bears. Willis might be one of the best — if not the best — backup quarterbacks in the game.
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Reason for concern: Green Bay seems to find unique ways to lose — or almost lose — games. The Packers botched an onside kick recovery in Week 16 against Chicago that allowed the Bears to get to overtime and eventually win. The run defense collapsed the next week against the Ravens, allowing 307 yards (216 of them to Derrick Henry). The Packers also almost had a clock management disaster at the end of overtime against the Cowboys in Week 4, when Green Bay nearly ran out of time before kicking a tying field goal to salvage the tie. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers entered Sunday ranked second in EPA per dropback. And similarly, Love ranks second in QBR. The efficiency of the Packers’ passing offense has almost gone under the radar — in part because Green Bay is a run-leaning team. So while the Packers’ Super Bowl hopes were certainly diminished after Micah Parsons’ season-ending injury, they are one of the best at the most important facet of football: passing offense. — Walder
Heat check rating: 2. The Packers lost their last three meaningful regular-season games, they won’t have Parsons for their playoff run and the fan base is more concerned with Love’s contract vs. Willis’ quality backup play than anything else. Bad vibes. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Packers will play at the Bears in the wild-card round on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). The Packers split with the Bears this season. Green Bay beat Chicago in Week 14 for the Packers’ last win in the regular season. These teams haven’t met in the playoffs since the Packers beat the Bears in the 2010 NFC Championship Game at Soldier Field. — ESPN
franchise-record 68 sacks), and it should rise even more in the postseason. Denver can create pressure against almost any protection look and has a deep secondary, led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. The Broncos can line Surtain up against any No. 1 receiver in the league and have confidence that he can win the matchup.
Reason for concern: An occasionally low-gear offense. The Broncos have shown they can win grind-it-out games by chewing the clock with long drives. And quarterback Bo Nix has shown he’s comfortable in late-game situations when the Broncos need a play. But Denver’s offense looks disjointed too often. It has been better of late, but the Broncos still are near the league leaders in percentage of drives that end in three-and-outs. And the Broncos often also lose the special teams battle and need to be bailed out by the defense. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, the Broncos ranked in the top eight in all four win rate metrics: pass block win rate, run block win rate, pass rush win rate and run stop win rate. This shows Denver’s effectiveness in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Nik Bonitto has been the pass rush standout, with a 22.9% pass rush win rate at edge entering Week 18 (third best) along with 14 sacks. On the offensive line, Garett Bolles (11th in pass block win rate at tackle entering Week 18) and Quinn Meinerz (eighth in run block win rate at guard entering Sunday) lead the way. — Walder
Heat check rating: 9. Denver has won 13 of its past 14 games, is relatively healthy on both sides of the ball and gets home-field advantage against a generally weaker AFC playoff field. The Broncos are ready to make a run. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Broncos will play the lowest remaining seed in the AFC (the AFC North champion, No. 5 Texans, No. 6 Bills or No. 7 Chargers) in the divisional round Jan. 17 or Jan. 18. The Broncos split their season series with the Chargers, defeated the Texans in Week 9 and did not play the Ravens, Steelers or Bills in the regular season. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +950
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 14.3%
Reason for hope: Drake Maye is playing at an MVP level. The second-year quarterback led the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%), throwing for 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Said edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson: «He’s just so calm and it’s all like slow motion. We literally asked him, ‘Do you feel like you’re in a flow state when you’re out there?'»
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Reason for concern: Run defense. The Patriots have been hemorrhaging yards against the run. Consider that from Week 10 to Week 18, opponents averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 131.25 rushing yards per game, with eight TDs on the ground. New England led the league in rush defense through Week 9, giving up 75.7 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry (second in the NFL).– Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, Milton Williams had a 13.7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, which would be fifth best if Williams played enough to qualify. The Patriots were without Williams after Week 11 until he returned Sunday and still went on a run that earned them the AFC East crown. Now that Williams is back in the mix, he should give their defense a lift when it matters most. — Walder
Heat check rating: 8. After a 2-2 start, the Patriots went 12-1 down the stretch, losing only to the Bills in a Week 15 game they easily could have won. But beating up on an easy schedule and running the playoff table are two different challenges. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Patriots will host the seventh-seeded Chargers in the wild-card round on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, NBC). New England did not play the Chargers in the regular season, with the last meeting being a 40-7 Chargers win in New England during Week 17 of the 2024 season. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 15-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 11.8%
Reason for hope: Trevor Lawrence and the offense are rolling. The quarterback was inconsistent and turned the ball over 16 times in the first 11 games but has played the best — and most consistent — football of his career since then. The addition of wide receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline gave Lawrence a sure-handed receiver who can work the middle of the field. Coach Liam Coen has figured out the best way to use Brian Thomas Jr. after his early struggles. All of that led to the Jaguars setting the single-season franchise record for points scored.
Reason for concern: The pass rush must improve. The Jaguars are third in the league with 222 QB pressures, but they’re 27th with 32 sacks, which means they’re not finishing. Most of the sack production has come from three players: edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen (eight) and Travon Walker (3.5), and defensive tackle Arik Armstead (5.5). They need more help, especially because Walker is playing with a knee injury and Armstead has a cast on a broken hand. Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile has done a good job of disguising blitzes and rushers, but will that be enough against a deep field of AFC quarterbacks? — Michael DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars are averaging 5.2 expected completed air yards per attempt, fourth best in the NFL. It’s a little convoluted, but this stat multiplies the air yards on each pass attempt by the expected completion probability from NFL Next Gen Stats. It’s essentially a metric that rewards strong pass play design along with good quarterback decision-making. — Walder
Heat check rating: 9. The Jaguars won their last eight games, saw enormous improvement from Lawrence down the back half of the season and were the only team to beat the Broncos after Week 3. Injuries are the only thing keeping this from being a 10. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Jaguars will host the No. 6-seeded Bills in the wild-card round on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Jacksonville did not play Buffalo in the regular season, but the Jaguars are 2-0 against the Bills in the playoffs, mostly recently beating Buffalo in the 2017 AFC wild-card round. — ESPN
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Trevor Lawrence details how first-year head coach Liam Coen has catapulted the Jaguars to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 150-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 6.6%
Reason for hope: Improved rushing defense. Though the Steelers got off to a bumpy start, the unit has improved dramatically late in the season. Pittsburgh has given up an average of 73.3 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, including meetings with Miami’s De’Von Achane, Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and Baltimore’s Derrick Henry. Offenses typically need to lean on the running game late in the season, and the Steelers are effectively clogging the opposing ground game.
Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency. The return of wide receiver DK Metcalf should help, but the Steelers have been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season. The Steelers managed only one touchdown in losses to Buffalo and the L.A. Chargers, and Pittsburgh didn’t find the end zone in Week 17 against Cleveland. But during their three-game winning streak over Baltimore, Miami and Detroit from Weeks 14 to 16, the Steelers scored 10 total touchdowns. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, the Steelers averaged 2.74 seconds from snap to throw, the quickest in the NFL. That number, in conjunction with their league-low 5.7 average air yards per attempt, are telling descriptors of a Steelers offense that relies on throwing to running backs, screens and YAC (65% of passing yards from YAC entering Week 18, tops in the NFL). — Walder
Heat check rating: 7. The Steelers earned their way to the postseason with a gritty, physical win over the Ravens. The vibes are good because Metcalf is returning from suspension, and with him in the fold, the offense has just enough star power to potentially win one. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Steelers will host the Texans in the wild-card round on Monday night, Jan. 12 (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC). The Steelers have never played the Texans in the playoffs but are 5-3 against Houston overall, with the Texans beating the Steelers 30-6 in their most recent meeting in Week 4 of the 2023 season. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 15-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 13.6%
Reason for hope: A dominant defense. The Texans are second in the NFL in scoring defense (17.4 points allowed per game), which has been enough to will them to wins and help them overcome an 0-3 start. They’ve shut down Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Daniel Jones. There’s no reason to think that can’t continue.
Reason for concern: Though the defense has been great, the offense has been quite inconsistent. Houston is averaging 21.9 offensive points per game, putting it toward the middle of the NFL (15th). The Texans have moments when the offense will go long stretches without scoring, which puts pressure on the defense to be nearly perfect. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, the Texans were tied for first in the defensive version of ESPN’s receiver scores with a 77. This means that Houston’s defensive backs did the best job of limiting opponents’ ability to get open, make the catch and generate YAC relative to expectations. This is a testament to outside cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, along with nickel Jalen Pitre. — Walder
Heat check rating: 10. The Texans bring a nine-game winning streak into the postseason, having clawed their way out of an 0-3 start while beating several playoff teams. They feel like a giant slayer. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Texans will play at the No. 4-seeded Steelers in the wild-card round on Monday (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC). Houston has never faced Pittsburgh in the playoffs and has not played the Steelers since Week 4 of the 2023 season. — ESPN
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Big man TD! Tommy Togiai turns Colts’ turnover into TD
The Colts’ failed trick play turns into a scoop-and-score as the Texans win it 38-30.
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 10-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 13.2%
Reason for hope: Josh Allen. If the quarterback is on the field, the Bills have a chance in every game. The defense continuing to play at its recent high level is also important, as it will continue to give Allen the maximum number of opportunities to generate points, but he is the biggest factor in Buffalo trying to reach a Super Bowl.
Reason for concern: The Bills have never won a road playoff game under Sean McDermott (0-5). There are issues on offense — most significantly at wide receiver — and the defense is prone to slow starts, but the Bills will have to get to the Super Bowl by winning on the road. Not winning the AFC East title in the final season at Highmark Stadium was a blow, so the Bills will have to do something that they haven’t done since the 1992 season: win playoff road games. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills rank third in pass block win rate and first in run block win rate. In addition to Allen, Buffalo’s blocking is how its offense makes up for the lack of receiving playmakers and still be one of the league’s most efficient units (averaged 0.12 EPA per play, fourth best in the NFL, entering Week 18). And it’s a huge reason running back James Cook III is averaging 3.1 yards before contact, fourth highest among running backs. — Walder
Heat check rating: 4. The offense hasn’t played a complete game in months, and the Bills’ reliance on second-half surges was evident in the loss to the Eagles. It’s a weaker AFC field without Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, but it’s also a weaker Bills team than we’ve recently seen. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Bills will play at the 3-seed Jaguars in the wild-card round on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). The Bills haven’t won a road playoff game since beating Miami in the 1992 AFC Championship Game. Buffalo did not play Jacksonville this season but won the last matchup between the teams, a 47-10 victory in Week 3 of the 2024 season. — ESPN
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 30-1
FPI chance to make the Super Bowl: 10.1%
Reason for hope: Justin Herbert. The Chargers’ recipe this season has been simple: rely on an elite defense and a few magical plays from their quarterback each game. Playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines, Herbert has made plays with defenders draped over him and scrambled for a career-high 498 rushing yards to keep this team afloat. He’ll attempt to continue doing just that to lead a playoff run — all while nursing a fractured left hand.
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Reason for concern: Offensive line. The Chargers have used 29 different offensive line combinations, the third most in the league. They rank last in pass block win rate and second-to-last in run block win rate entering Week 18. L.A.’s struggling offensive line is its most glaring issue and what could be the reason the Chargers are out of the postseason early again this season. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: Entering Week 18, Herbert ranked third in EPA generated via scrambles or designed QB runs (32.8). This is a career-best number from Herbert, and it’s necessary because of the specific pass-protection weakness in front of him. The Chargers ranked last in pass block win rate (54.4%) entering Week 18, so it’s a testament to the QB that the Chargers have generated enough offense to get into the postseason. — Walder
Heat check rating: 5. The Chargers should feel relatively good about how well they’ve overcome their offensive line injuries, but should they feel objectively good about dragging this roster into an AFC postseason riddled with quality defenses? With Herbert’s heroics, you can only feel so bad, I suppose. — Solak
First-game outlook: The Chargers will play at the second-seeded Patriots during wild-card weekend on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, NBC). The teams did not meet during the regular season. This will be their fifth playoff meeting, with the Patriots winning the past three to hold a 3-1 advantage. Their last postseason meeting came during the 2018 AFC divisional round, a 41-28 Patriots victory. — ESPN
