The victor claims everything: An inside look at NFL division conflicts in the sportsbooks

Doug Greenberg
David Purdum
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David Purdum

ESPN Staff Writer
- Joined ESPN in 2014
- Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008

Dec 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

After the Baltimore Ravens lost to the New England Patriots in Week 16, their hopes of winning the AFC North almost completely evaporated. To have any chance, they would need to beat the playoff-bound Green Bay Packers on the road and have the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the hapless Cleveland Browns in Week 17.

As fate would have it, both of those results came to fruition, as the Ravens and Browns overcame underdog status to win their games and set up a winner-take-all showdown for the AFC North between Baltimore and Pittsburgh in Week 18. At DraftKings, the Ravens opened as 3-point road favorites against the Steelers.

Going into Week 17, Pittsburgh held commanding -1400 odds to win the division, compared with +800 for the Ravens. DraftKings reports that in the past week, 87% of handle came in on the Ravens for the AFC North, while BetMGM said it received 83% of money backing Baltimore in the same period, though the Ravens are still its smallest liability for the division overall.

It has been quite an odyssey for the Ravens to get to this point. After entering the season at odds-on, they briefly relinquished favorite status to Pittsburgh ahead of Week 7 before returning to the top of the board for several weeks. Then, the Steelers’ head-to-head win over Baltimore in Week 14 propelled them ahead until their loss to Cleveland.

Lamar Jackson, bookmakers are comfortable keeping Baltimore as a field goal favorite.

«We don’t feel there is much difference between [backup QB Tyler] Huntley and this version of Jackson, what appears to be an injured version of Jackson,» John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. «The Ravens’ offense looked as good as ever on Saturday, Huntley knows the offense well and Lamar hasn’t been right all season. Don’t see it making much of a difference.»

Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, sees a bit more contrast between Jackson and Huntley, saying he anticipates the game moving closer to pick ‘em should the former be ruled out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers were -1200 to win the NFC South while the Carolina Panthers were +1200. In Week 18, the two teams will face off for the division. The Bucs opened as 3.5-point home favorites for the showdown with the Panthers, according to DraftKings odds.

The matchup is the culmination of opposing trends for the division rivals. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in eight consecutive games, the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL and the longest in franchise history, per ESPN Research. Meanwhile, Carolina has come all the way back from odds as long as +2500 to win the NFC South in Week 5.

Further, with the San Francisco 49ers victory over the Chicago Bears on «Sunday Night Football,» they will face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18 for the NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed. Seattle opened as a 1.5-point road favorite over San Francisco.

NFL odds and ends

Despite lackluster matchups not shown on traditional TV outlets, the NFL topped the NBA on Christmas Day in terms of betting interest. At Caesars Sportsbook, the showcase NBA matchups attracted only close to half the amount of money that was wagered on the least-bet NFL game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders. «The NFL is still the king at the end of the day, as the three low-stakes NFL games easily surpassed the handle of all of the NBA games,» Feazel said.
Derrick Henry was DraftKings’ most-bet player to score two-plus touchdowns during Saturday’s two-game slate. He scored four in the Ravens’ huge win over the Packers.
Cincinnati Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase stated his goal openly heading into Week 17. «I think the biggest thing on the list is to score another touchdown. … I think I’ve been overdue since Week 7,» Chase told reporters last week. Bettors at DraftKings, who were listening, were rewarded. More money was bet on Chase to score a touchdown Sunday than on any other player at DraftKings. He caught two TDs in the Bengals’ 37-14 rout of the Arizona Cardinals.
With their thrilling win over the Buffalo Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) have won six straight games outright as an underdog, including the playoffs, tied for the longest such streak since 2010, according to ESPN Research.