The National League West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers look to break out of their funk and avoid a sweep when they visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday for the finale of their three-game series. Los Angeles (78-61), which owns a 2 1/2-game division lead over the San Diego Padres (76-64), has lost four of its last five contests after having dropped 9-7 and 3-0 decisions in Pittsburgh.
The Dodgers hope to salvage the finale behind Blake Snell (3-3, 2.41 ERA), who lost three of his five starts in August despite allowing three runs or fewer in each outing. However, the 32-year-old left-hander recorded at least eight strikeouts three times in that span.
Los Angeles’ task will be a difficult one as Pittsburgh, which has won four of its last five contests, counters with ace Paul Skenes (9-9, 2.05). The 23-year-old right-hander is coming off back-to-back victories in which he registered 13 strikeouts over 13 innings and was superb against the Dodgers earlier this season, scattering five hits while fanning nine batters across 6 1/3 frames en route to victory.
Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for both Snell (Over -156, Under +119) and Skenes (Over -118, Under -112) at 6.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Skenes’ Over 6.5 strikeouts prop as a 3-star play on its 5-star scale and Snell’s Over 6.5 as a 2.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value on Thursday’s six-game schedule, as there are two pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that returns plus money, and one at 4 stars. Here they are:
Kyle Hendricks Over 2.5 strikeouts (+110) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 3.5 strikeouts
Hendricks has fanned only two batters in each of his last two starts but has posted his best strikeout numbers this year on the road. The 35-year-old righty recorded a season-high nine strikeouts against the Yankees in New York and struck out six at both Cleveland and Detroit. Kansas City enters Thursday with the lowest strikeout total in the majors (945) this campaign but whiffed eight times in Wednesday’s loss to the Angels. Hendricks has gone Over this projected total in each of his four career starts against the Royals and fanned four over five innings in his turn against them last year.
Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-135) vs. Brewers (4:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts
Suarez is looking to bounce back from an outing against the Atlanta Braves in which he recorded only two strikeouts over five innings. The 30-year-old Venezuelan left-hander reached double digits in each of his previous two turns, fanning 10 across 6 2/3 frames versus the Seattle Mariners and 11 over seven innings against the Washington Nationals. Suarez has registered five or more strikeouts in eight of his nine starts on the road this season, averaging 6.1 in those contests.
Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 strikeouts (-101) vs. Astros (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts
Rodon hasn’t recorded more than five strikeouts in any of his last five starts but has had good success against the Astros over his career. The 32-year-old southpaw has fanned 64 batters across 64 2/3 innings in 11 outings versus Houston and struck out 11 over 10 2/3 frames in two meetings last season. The Astros have the third-fewest amount of strikeouts in the American League this year but have whiffed at least eight times in each of their last four games.
