The two teams with the best records in all of baseball collide once again when the Milwaukee Brewers battle the Philadelphia Phillies in the second game of a three-game series on Wednesday at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Brewers (85-54) own the best record in the majors, while the Phillies (80-58) have the second best. In the first game of the series on Tuesday, Philadelphia rallied from a 4-0 deficit for a 10-8 victory.
Wednesday’s pitching matchup features Milwaukee lefty Jose Quintana (10-5, 3.69 ERA) taking on Philadelphia righty Aaron Nola (3-7, 6.47). Quintana is coming off his worst start of the season: six earned runs in 3⅔ innings against the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, Nola is making his fourth start since spending three months on the IL with a sprained right ankle and fractured rib.
Top sportsbooks have set Nola’s total pitcher strikeout prop at 5.5 and Quintana’s at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Nola Over 5.5 as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Quintana Over 4.5 as a 3.5-star play.
However, neither player is among the model’s top three pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday’s schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars.
Casey Mize Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (1:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesday. This is a more-than-reasonable total for Mize (12-5, 3.95), who has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 17 of 23 starts this season. According to Baseball Savant, the Tigers righty has a 20.3 strikeout percentage this season, which is the best of his career. Mize also has been a much better starter at home this season, with a 3.61 ERA.
Clay Holmes Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Tigers (1:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
The model also likes the other starter in the Mets-Tigers matinee. Holmes (11-6, 3.60) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of 27 starts this season, including four of his last five. He also has pitched well lately, going 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 16⅓ innings over his last three starts. On Wednesday he will face a Detroit ballclub that averages 8.81 strikeouts at the plate, the sixth highest average in the majors.
Shohei Ohtani Under 6.5 strikeouts vs. Pirates (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
The SportsLine Projection Model continues to fade Ohtani (1-1, 4.18) on the mound. The Dodgers have taken their time stretching out the big righty after his return from Tommy John surgery. Though he threw a season-high 87 pitches and struck out a season-high nine in his last start, he struck out just three in four innings in the start prior to that. On Wednesday he will square off against a Pittsburgh team that has scored 21 runs over its last three games.
