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Jesse Rogers
The market for free agent hitters got a jolt last week at the winter meetings when 32-year-old designated hitter Kyle Schwarber agreed to a five-year, $150 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies, and that was followed by 31-year-old first baseman Pete Alonso getting a five-year, $155 million deal from the Baltimore Orioles a day later.
Schwarber and Alonso ranked No. 8 and No. 9, respectively, on ESPN’s ranking of the top 50 free agents heading into the winter, and both contracts show the value of the top one-dimensional players this offseason as the teams invested in them for one main reason: their bats.
Neither slugger is a major threat on the bases — though Schwarber stole a career-high 10 bases last year. Defensively, Schwarber rarely plays in the outfield, and Alonso ranked just 18th among first basemen in defensive runs saved and outs above average last season. Yet, both players got long-term deals that will pay them $30 million annually well into their 30s.
Since they signed, there has been a momentary lull at the top of the free agent market for hitters — in part because some agents might be rethinking their strategies and wondering what these deals mean for some of the more well-rounded players available this winter.
Bo Bichette, second baseman Alex Bregman, first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger and outfielder Kyle Tucker — should be the beneficiaries of how last week’s deals could reset the market.
«It’s the first thing I’m doing if I’m in the room,» an agent not associated with any of the above players said via text. «Reminding everyone how old those guys are and what my player can do that they can’t.»
The four hitters might also hit it big this winter because next year’s free agent hitting class is not expected to be strong. The Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki, the Blue Jays’ George Springer and the Orioles’ Taylor Ward are likely to be the best of the bunch.
With that in mind, let’s take a new look at the remaining big four, using fWAR (FanGraphs’ version of WAR) as a central metric to compare across positions. (Schwarber compiled a 4.9 fWAR last season, while Alonso came in at 3.6). We asked a front office executive with no interest in signing any of the players for help in this exercise, and included updated projections from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel based on how the offseason has played out so far.
Bo Bichette
FA ranking: No. 7
Bichette will be 28 on Opening Day, making him the youngest of this group, but he was limited to 139 games in 2025, missing time because of a knee injury in September. He finished the season with 3.8 fWAR and missed the first two rounds of the postseason before returning for the World Series.
Bichette is one of the best contact hitters in the sport, but he’s also valuable because he plays in the middle of the diamond even if he doesn’t finish his career as a shortstop.
«His only knock is the injuries,» the executive said.
Rankings, contract projections »
Bichette hasn’t played in more than 135 games in a season since 2022, but still finished 16th in American League MVP voting in 2023 and 2025. The most recent comp for his free agency might be San Francisco Giants shortstop Willy Adames, who signed a seven-year, $182 million contract last offseason.
Adames produced a 4.8 fWAR for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2024 and played in 161 games that season, helping to provide that gap in fWAR, before he became a free agent. Only once in his career (when he played just 81 games in 2024) has Bichette posted an OPS+ below 121 while Adames hasn’t exceeded an OPS+ of 119 since 2021.
Bichette is also a couple of years younger than Adames, putting him more in line age-wise with Carlos Correa, who signed a six-year, $200 million contract after a 4.6 fWAR season with Minnesota in 2022.
McDaniel’s original projection: Five years, $130 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: Five years, $150 million (assuming long-term deal vs. shorter with opt-outs)
Alex Bregman
FA ranking: No. 4
Also limited because of an injury in 2025, Bregman appeared in just 114 games but has played in at least 155 games five times in his career. Before his fWAR fell to 3.5 last season, he had posted at least 4.0 WAR in each of the previous three seasons. He’s also just one year removed from winning a Gold Glove at third base. Bregman has also been on base over 35% of the time each year over the latter half of his career while striking out more than 90 times just once — in 2017.
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But as the oldest of the group (he turns 32 in March), he won’t be in line for a decade-long deal with whichever team signs him.
«His eye at the plate is underrated,» the executive said. «Look at his walk-to-strikeout totals. That should age well.»
The seven-year, $175 million deal Marcus Semien signed entering his age-31 season is a good starting point when looking for comps. Bregman might not get the same length that Semien received, but Bregman’s annual salary should easily beat the $25 million per year Semien is getting.
McDaniel’s original projection: Five years, $160 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: Five years, $170 million (or six years to lower the AAV)
Cody Bellinger
FA ranking: No. 3
Bellinger is the only one of the four who played a full season in 2025, appearing in 152 games for the Yankees, his highest total since 2018. Coming off a 4.9 fWAR season, he’s primed to cash in.
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«Perfect fit for him in New York,» our executive said. «Everyone thought he would hit a lot of home runs there, and he did.»
Bellinger’s ability to play first base as well as the outfield — and at a high level anywhere he plays — adds value to his résumé that Schwarber, Alonso and the others lack.
Brandon Nimmo’s eight-year, $162 million contract is a good starting point for Bellinger as an outfielder. Nimmo signed that before the 2023 season after producing a 5.5 fWAR season.
McDaniel’s original projection: Six years, $165 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: Six years, $180 million
Kyle Tucker
FA ranking: No. 1
Widely viewed as the top player in this winter’s class, Tucker has also dealt with injuries the past two seasons, but they were considered fluky (a fractured shin in 2024 and a fractured thumb last season).
He compiled 4.5 fWAR despite his thumb injury last season and 4.2 fWAR in just 78 games the previous year. His 2024 performance projected out to nearly a 10-WAR season if he had been healthy.
«It goes without saying that when he’s healthy, Tucker is one of the best hitters in the league,» the executive said. «Pair him with other good hitters like he had in Houston, and he’s even better.»
Though they are different types of players, comparing Tucker’s free agency to Juan Soto’s last year isn’t outrageous due to their ability to take walks and not strike out. Tucker committed to swinging at better pitches a couple of years ago, and the results have come: His 1.00 walk-to-strikeout percentage over the past two seasons is in line with Soto — and just behind Luis Arraez for best in MLB.
That ability, combined with his slug, has him in a rare class with Soto and perhaps Mookie Betts before he signed his 12-year, $365 million deal with the Dodgers. Despite a late-season calf injury, Tucker also stole 25 bases last year, which is also reminiscent of Soto, who stole 38 in 2025.
McDaniel’s original projection: 11 years, $418 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: 11 years, $418 million (with potential deferrals)
